Snapshot observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The supplied Kalshi event covers the fourth quarter of a Golden State vs Atlanta women's Pro Basketball game originally scheduled for October 24, 2026. Each contract asks whether one team wins the fourth quarter by more than a stated margin. The rules say that "If Golden State wins by more than X points in the 4th quarter, excluding overtime," the market resolves to Yes, and that "This market does not include overtime" [1].

The contracts use different thresholds (1.5, 3.5, 6.5, and 9.5 points) and different teams, so they are separate questions. Their prices should not be read as a single distribution or summed.

Timing rules also matter. The source says that if the game "is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled game has finished, within 2 days" [1]. The saved market records show an end date of 2026-10-26T17:00:00.000Z, but the same source states "Listed end time: not supplied," so the close time is not fully confirmed by the excerpt.

Reading the snapshot

The saved sample includes all 7 markets for this event (partialSample is false), so no listed contract was omitted from the saved event. The sample does not establish that every possible real-world outcome is listed.

Yes prices at the observation time were:

• Atlanta wins 4Q by over 1.5 points: 0.46
• Golden State wins 4Q by over 1.5 points: 0.40
• Atlanta wins 4Q by over 3.5 points: 0.40
• Golden State wins 4Q by over 3.5 points: 0.32
• Atlanta wins 4Q by over 6.5 points: 0.285
• Golden State wins 4Q by over 6.5 points: 0.21
• Atlanta wins 4Q by over 9.5 points: 0.19

The observation time was 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-23T01:46:28.168Z [1]. These are time-stamped snapshots, not current or executable quotes, and they should not be treated as verified probabilities. The excerpt does not explain why any price is where it is.

What remains uncertain

The evidence does not show current prices, trading depth, or the number of participants. Volume is not supplied as a liquidity measure here, and the excerpt gives no outcome of the game. Because the contracts have different thresholds and teams, a difference between two prices does not indicate an arbitrage opportunity. Readers should check the listed close time and the postponement rules directly before relying on any of these contracts.

References

1. Kalshi: Golden State vs Atlanta: 4th Quarter Spread. Provider data observed 2026-10-23T00:00:06.081Z.