$20.90K
1
6
$20.90K
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6
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported on February 27, 2026. If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is n
Traders on prediction markets think there is a roughly 7 in 10 chance that between 2.2 million and 2.4 million passengers will pass through TSA checkpoints on February 28, 2026. This is the leading forecast. The market assigns much lower probabilities to totals outside that range, suggesting a strong consensus around a specific band of passenger volume for that late-winter Friday.
The forecast is built on typical seasonal travel patterns and recent data. February is generally a slower month for air travel, situated between the winter holidays and spring break. A Friday, however, tends to be one of the busier days of the week for business and weekend leisure travel.
Looking at historical TSA data for late February provides a clear benchmark. For example, on Friday, February 23, 2024, TSA screened about 2.37 million passengers. The market's chosen range closely aligns with this recent precedent, assuming normal economic conditions and no major disruptions. Traders are essentially betting that travel patterns in early 2026 will look similar to those we see today, adjusted for a modest, steady growth trend in overall flight demand since the pandemic recovery.
The main event is the release of the official TSA throughput data for February 28, 2026, which typically happens the following morning. This market will resolve immediately once that number is published.
Before that date, the forecast could shift if there are significant developments. A major winter storm forecast for the Northeast or Midwest around February 28 could lead traders to lower their predictions. Conversely, an unexpected surge in last-minute travel deals or a notably strong economic report could nudge predictions upward. Traders will watch the weekly TSA data releases in the preceding weeks to see if passenger volumes are tracking above or below the seasonal expectations.
For short-term forecasts of concrete, frequent metrics like daily TSA counts, prediction markets have a solid track record. The data is released consistently, is not subjective, and has a long history for comparison. Markets are good at aggregating public information about seasonality and recent trends.
The primary limitation here is the long time horizon; this event is nearly two years away. A lot can change in the economy or in travel behavior between now and then. The current 70% probability reflects confidence based on what we know today, but it remains sensitive to new information over the coming months. For near-term TSA date markets (e.g., predicting next week's numbers), these markets are often very accurate.
Prediction markets on Polymarket currently assign a 70% probability that the total number of TSA passengers screened on February 28 will fall between 2.2 million and 2.4 million. This price indicates a strong consensus view, though not a certainty. The remaining 30% probability is distributed across higher and lower volume brackets. Trading volume is relatively thin at $76,000 spread across six related markets, suggesting limited capital commitment from institutional players.
The pricing reflects a return to established post-pandemic travel patterns. February 28, 2026, is a Friday, which typically sees elevated leisure and business travel compared to mid-week. Historical TSA data from 2023-2025 shows that late-February weekday passenger volumes consistently ranged between 2.1 million and 2.5 million, barring major holiday periods or disruptions. The market's concentration on the 2.2-2.4 million range aligns with this recent baseline, accounting for modest annual growth in air travel demand. The absence of a major holiday or traditional spring break period for most schools on this specific date supports a forecast within this standard range.
The primary risk to the consensus is unforeseen operational disruption. A significant winter storm affecting major hubs in the Northeast or Midwest could suppress volumes below 2.2 million. Conversely, an unusually early spike in spring break travel from key regions could push demand above 2.4 million. While the resolution is imminent based on the release of official TSA data, last-minute revisions to the reporting methodology or data corrections for prior dates in December 2025 or January 2026 could theoretically influence the final figure, though this is a low-probability event.
The limited liquidity across these brackets increases volatility. A 70% price in a market with only $76,000 in total volume can be moved by a single large trader, making it a less reliable signal than a deeply liquid market. The concentration of probability in one bracket likely reflects a lack of opposing capital rather than overwhelming informational certainty. For researchers, this market offers a snapshot of crowd-sourced expectation, but the thin volume advises caution in interpreting it as a definitive forecast.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the total number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) on a specific future date, February 27, 2026. The TSA, part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, screens all commercial airline passengers at U.S. airports. Its daily throughput data is a closely watched economic and social indicator, reflecting consumer confidence, business travel activity, and overall transportation sector health. The reported figure for a given day represents the sum of passengers processed at over 430 federalized airports across the nation. The accuracy of this data is critical for market resolution, as the prediction contract settles based on the official number published by the TSA. Interest in forecasting this specific date stems from its position in the annual travel calendar. Late February typically falls after the winter holiday peak but before the spring break surge, making it a benchmark for baseline travel demand. Analysts, airlines, airport operators, and investors monitor these figures to gauge recovery trends, seasonal patterns, and the impact of external factors like economic conditions or health advisories on travel behavior. The precision required for prediction markets makes understanding the TSA's data reporting methodology essential for participants.
The TSA was created by the Aviation and Transportation Security Act signed by President George W. Bush on November 19, 2001, in response to the 9/11 attacks. The agency assumed responsibility for passenger screening from private contractors and began federalized operations in 2002. Daily passenger data has been tracked since its inception, creating a two-decade-long dataset. A major historical benchmark was set on the Sunday after Thanksgiving in 2019, when TSA screened over 2.88 million passengers, a single-day record at the time. The COVID-19 pandemic caused an unprecedented collapse in air travel. On April 14, 2020, TSA screened only 87,534 passengers nationwide, just 4% of the volume on the same date in 2019. This event reset all forecasting models. The recovery has been uneven. Passenger volumes returned to 2019 levels in 2023, but the pattern of travel changed, with leisure demand recovering faster than business travel. Historical data shows strong weekly seasonality, with Fridays and Sundays typically being the busiest days, and annual peaks around major holidays. The data for late February has historically shown moderate volumes, often used as a baseline between holiday periods.
TSA passenger numbers are a high-frequency economic indicator. A sustained increase suggests growing consumer confidence and business activity, as people are willing to spend on travel for both work and leisure. Conversely, a sudden drop can signal economic anxiety, health concerns, or disruptive weather events. For the aviation industry, these figures translate directly into revenue. Airlines adjust flight schedules and staffing based on demand forecasts derived from such data. Airports rely on passenger counts for concession revenue and to justify infrastructure investments. For government policymakers, travel volume affects decisions on infrastructure funding, security staffing allocations, and tourism promotion. The data also has social significance. It reflects societal mobility and the reconnection of families and social networks. Significant deviations from forecasted patterns can have downstream effects on hotel occupancy, rental car usage, and tourism spending in destination cities, impacting millions of service-sector jobs.
As of early 2025, TSA passenger volumes have stabilized above 2019 levels, but growth rates have moderated. The agency continues to recruit and train new officers to maintain staffing levels. A key operational focus is expanding the TSA PreCheck and other trusted traveler programs to improve checkpoint efficiency. The official data for 2024 has been finalized, showing a new single-day record set in the summer. Industry forecasts for 2025, such as those from A4A, project continued growth, albeit at a slower pace than the immediate post-pandemic rebound. The data reporting process remains consistent, with daily figures typically published on the TSA's website and social media accounts the following morning.
The TSA posts the daily number on its official website (tsa.gov) and its Twitter/X account (@TSA). The official, verified historical dataset is archived by the Bureau of Transportation Statistics in their TranStats database.
The reported figure is for passengers screened during a single calendar day, from 12:00 AM to 11:59 PM Eastern Time. It includes all passengers at TSA checkpoints, regardless of their flight's departure time.
Yes. The count includes every passenger screened at a TSA checkpoint for a flight departing from a U.S. airport. This encompasses both domestic travelers and international travelers beginning their journey in the U.S.
The data is considered highly accurate as it is generated directly from the agency's operational systems at each airport checkpoint. Minor revisions can occur but are rare for recent dates. The BTS archive is the definitive source for final numbers.
Daily numbers are driven by the airline flight schedule, seat occupancy (load factors), day of the week, season, holidays, major events, weather disruptions, and broader economic conditions affecting travel demand.
TSA PreCheck does not change the total number of passengers counted. It changes how they are processed, often speeding up checkpoint lines, which allows the system to handle higher volumes more smoothly.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
6 markets tracked
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| Poly | 78% |
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