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$14.87K
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In 2028 If X is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses that are officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered. Unofficial “beauty contest” primaries, straw polls, or events where the party has i
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns which U.S. state will hold the first Democratic presidential primary or caucus in 2028. The market resolves based on the official calendar recognized by the Democratic National Committee (DNC), not the actual date of voting. Only events that officially allocate delegates toward the presidential nomination are considered. The order of early states is a significant political issue, as going first provides disproportionate media attention and influence over the nomination process. The topic is relevant because the Democratic Party has recently reformed its early state lineup, breaking with a decades-long tradition that began with Iowa's caucuses. In 2024, South Carolina was moved to the first position, followed by Nevada and New Hampshire on the same day, then Georgia and Michigan. This change was driven by a desire for a more diverse electorate to lead the process. Interest in the 2028 order stems from whether this new lineup will become permanent or if other states will lobby for the coveted first-in-the-nation spot. The decision involves complex negotiations between state parties, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, and potential presidential campaigns.
For half a century, the Democratic presidential nomination process began with the Iowa caucuses, followed by the New Hampshire primary. This tradition started in 1972 when Iowa moved its caucuses earlier to gain attention. New Hampshire has a state law requiring its secretary of state to schedule its primary at least seven days before any similar contest, a law it has used to protect its first-primary status for over 100 years. The 2008 cycle saw Nevada and South Carolina added as early states to increase racial and geographic diversity. Growing criticism that Iowa and New Hampshire were too white and unrepresentative of the Democratic electorate led to a major review after the 2020 election. In February 2023, the DNC officially approved a new calendar for 2024, demoting Iowa and New Hampshire and placing South Carolina first on February 3, 2024. Nevada and New Hampshire were scheduled for February 6, though New Hampshire defied the DNC and held an unsanctioned primary on January 23. This defiance led the DNC to strip New Hampshire of its delegates, demonstrating the party's willingness to enforce its new rules.
The order of presidential primaries shapes which voters have the loudest voice in selecting a party's nominee. States that vote first receive intense candidate attention, with campaigns spending months visiting diners and living rooms there. The media narrative from early states can make or break candidacies, creating momentum that affects later contests. Economically, hosting the first contest brings millions of dollars in campaign spending on advertising, staff, hotels, and event venues to the chosen state. Politically, the decision reflects the party's values and electoral strategy. Placing a diverse state first signals a commitment to a coalition that includes Black, Latino, and other minority voters who are essential to Democratic victories. The calendar also affects policy, as candidates tailor their platforms to address the specific concerns of early-state voters, which can then become national priorities. The process creates winners and losers among state party organizations, influencing their funding, prestige, and ability to recruit candidates for down-ballot races.
As of late 2024, the Democratic Party has not begun formal proceedings to set the 2028 presidential primary calendar. The process typically starts about two years before the election year, meaning serious discussions will likely commence in 2026. The 2024 calendar, with South Carolina first, is considered a test run. Party officials are evaluating whether the new lineup produced a nominee who connected with diverse voters and whether the logistics worked smoothly. Several states that were granted early positions for 2024, like Georgia, failed to comply with DNC requirements to move their primaries earlier, suggesting ongoing tensions between state and national party control. New Hampshire has indicated it will continue to defend its first-primary tradition, setting up another potential clash for 2028.
The Democratic Party changed its calendar to better reflect the diversity of its voter base. Iowa and New Hampshire, which had led the process for decades, have predominantly white populations. South Carolina, with its significant Black Democratic electorate, was moved first to give minority voters more influence in selecting the nominee.
Yes, a state can legally hold its primary whenever its state law dictates. However, the DNC controls which contests officially allocate delegates to the national convention. If a state holds an unsanctioned primary, the DNC can refuse to seat its delegates, as happened to New Hampshire in 2024.
The two parties set their calendars independently, but they often coordinate with state governments to hold primaries on the same date to save money. If Republicans keep a different early state lineup, it creates logistical challenges for states trying to accommodate both parties' rules.
The DNC considers demographic diversity, electoral competitiveness, feasibility of moving the primary date, and general election importance. The party also considers whether a state can run a fair, well-administered contest that allows broad voter participation.
The calendar is typically approved at the DNC's summer meeting about 18 months before the election year. For 2028, this would likely occur in mid-2026, following a months-long application and review process by the Rules and Bylaws Committee.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
12 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire) | Kalshi | 42% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina) | Kalshi | 30% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada) | Kalshi | 19% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Iowa) | Kalshi | 3% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Michigan) | Kalshi | 3% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Mexico) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Tennessee) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Delaware) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Illinois) | Kalshi | 2% |
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Georgia) | Kalshi | 1% |
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