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Event GroupKALSHIElections

Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

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Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

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What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

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Single-Platform Markets(12)

Market	Platform	Price
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)	Kalshi	42%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)	Kalshi	34%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)	Kalshi	18%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Delaware)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Illinois)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Georgia)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Michigan)	Kalshi	2%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Iowa)	Kalshi	1%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Mexico)	Kalshi	1%
What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Tennessee)	Kalshi	1%

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About This Event

In 2028 If X is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses that are officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered. Unofficial “beauty contest” primaries, straw polls, or events where the party has i

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2028

If X is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only primaries and caucuses that are officially recognized by the party as part of the presidential nominating process are considered. Unofficial “beauty contest” primaries, straw polls, or events where the party has i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If New Mexico is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. O"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Mexico)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 3. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Tennessee)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Delaware)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 6. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Illinois)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Georgia)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.2% (0.0%)]

### 8. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Michigan)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 34.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Iowa)
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 7, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

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KALSHI

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

If New Hampshire is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place

KALSHI

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 34.0¢No 66.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

If South Carolina is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take plac

KALSHI

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.0¢No 82.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

If Nevada is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Only

KALSHI

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 2.3¢No 97.7¢

KALSHIPolitics

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

If North Carolina is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take plac

KALSHI

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 1.8¢No 98.2¢

KALSHIPolitics

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

If Virginia is the first Democratic primary or caucus during the 2028 presidential cycle, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The determination is based on the official calendar or schedule announced or recognized by the party, not on when primaries or caucuses actually take place. Onl

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Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

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What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

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Events (1)

Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

Markets (12)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

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What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

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Which state will be scheduled first in the 2028 Democratic primary?

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (New Hampshire)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (South Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Nevada)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (North Carolina)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

What state will be first in the Democratic presidential primary? (Virginia)

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