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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the RI-02 House seat? | Poly | 93% |
Will the Republican Party win the RI-02 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
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This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the RI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 election for Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district (RI-02) in the U.S. House of Representatives. The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as determined by major media outlets following the November 4, 2026, midterm elections. The district covers the western half of Rhode Island, including parts of Providence County and all of Kent, Washington, and Newport counties. The seat is currently held by Democrat Seth Magaziner, who won the 2022 election to succeed retiring Democrat James Langevin. The 2026 race will be a key indicator of political trends in a historically Democratic-leaning but occasionally competitive district. Interest in this market stems from its potential to signal broader national shifts during the midterms, which occur during the latter half of a presidential term. Political analysts watch districts like RI-02 for signs of changing voter sentiment, especially in suburban areas that have shown volatility in recent elections. The outcome could influence control of the House and reflect the effectiveness of national party strategies in New England.
Rhode Island's 2nd congressional district has elected a Democrat in every election since 1990, when Republican Claudine Schneider retired. From 2001 to 2023, Democrat James Langevin held the seat with minimal competition, often winning by margins of 30 percentage points or more. His lowest margin of victory was 16 points in 2010, a strong Republican year nationally. The district's political dynamics shifted with Langevin's 2022 retirement. The open seat attracted a competitive race between Democrat Seth Magaziner and Republican Allan Fung. Magaziner won with 50.3% to Fung's 46.9%, a margin of 10,861 votes. This was the closest result in the district since 1990. The 2022 election demonstrated that while the district leans Democratic, it can be competitive under the right circumstances, particularly with a strong Republican candidate like Fung who had high name recognition as the former mayor of Cranston, the district's largest city. Historically, the district includes both liberal areas like Providence's western suburbs and more conservative rural sections in Washington County, creating a political mix that occasionally produces tight races.
The RI-02 election outcome will be analyzed as a bellwether for suburban and small-state politics in the 2026 midterms. A Democratic hold would suggest resilience in traditionally blue areas during a midterm cycle that typically favors the party not holding the White House. A Republican flip would indicate potential broader gains in New England and similar districts nationwide. The result directly impacts the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Each seat is critical in what is often a narrowly divided chamber; the 118th Congress began with a Republican majority of just nine seats. Beyond Congress, the election affects federal policy direction on issues important to Rhode Island, such as offshore wind energy development, naval defense contracts, and healthcare funding. The winner will influence federal spending and regulatory decisions that shape the state's economy. For Rhode Island voters, the election determines representation on local concerns like the future of Quonset Point industrial park, maintenance of Newport's naval facilities, and federal aid for infrastructure projects across the district's aging bridges and highways.
As of early 2025, no candidates have officially declared for the 2026 RI-02 election. Incumbent Seth Magaziner is expected to seek re-election but has not made a formal announcement. Potential Republican challengers, including Allan Fung, have also not declared their intentions. The political environment is shaped by the upcoming 2024 presidential election, whose outcome will influence the national mood heading into the 2026 midterms. Local party organizations are beginning to assess potential candidates and fundraising needs. The district's demographic and economic profile remains stable, with ongoing discussions about offshore wind projects at the Port of Providence and military investments at Naval Station Newport likely to be campaign issues.
The current representative is Democrat Seth Magaziner, who took office in January 2023 after winning the 2022 election. He succeeded Democrat James Langevin, who retired after 22 years in the seat.
The general election will be held on November 4, 2026, as part of the national midterm elections. Primary elections to select party nominees will occur earlier in 2026, with dates set by Rhode Island state law.
Yes, but not recently. Republican Claudine Schneider represented the district from 1981 to 1991. The district has elected only Democrats since her retirement in 1990.
The district includes Cranston, Warwick, West Warwick, Coventry, Westerly, Newport, and parts of Providence. It covers all of Kent, Washington, and Newport counties, and western Providence County.
The market resolves based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate as called by major media outlets like the Associated Press after the November 2026 election. The outcome is binary: either the Democratic or Republican candidate wins.
The 2022 race was an open seat election with no incumbent, featuring a strong Republican candidate (Allan Fung) with high name recognition against a Democrat (Seth Magaziner) in a national political environment that favored Republicans.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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