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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-10 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Republican Party win the NY-10 House seat? | Poly | 9% |
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election for New York's 10th congressional district. The market will resolve based on the party affiliation of the winning candidate after all 2026 House races are officially called by designated resolution sources. The district covers parts of Lower Manhattan and western Brooklyn, including neighborhoods like the Financial District, Greenwich Village, and parts of Park Slope. This seat is currently held by Democratic Representative Dan Goldman, who first won election in 2022. The 2026 election will occur during the midterm cycle of President Kamala Harris's first term, which historically presents challenges for the incumbent president's party. Political observers monitor this district because it represents a deep-blue Democratic stronghold in a state where Republicans have made recent gains in suburban and rural districts, making it a potential bellwether for Democratic base turnout in major urban centers.
New York's 10th district has existed in various forms since 1793, but its current configuration resulted from the 2022 redistricting process. Following the 2020 census, a court-appointed special master drew new congressional lines after New York's legislature failed to pass maps. The new 10th district combined wealthy Manhattan neighborhoods with progressive Brooklyn areas, creating a district where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by approximately 8 to 1. The 2022 election was the first under these new boundaries and featured a crowded Democratic primary with 12 candidates, including former Mayor Bill de Blasio and several sitting state legislators. Dan Goldman won the primary with 25.8% of the vote in a ranked-choice voting contest. In the general election, he defeated Republican candidate Benine Hamdan with 83.6% support. Historically, the areas comprising this district have elected Democrats for decades. The last Republican to represent any portion of this territory was Congressman Bill Green, who lost reelection in 1992.
The outcome in NY-10 will serve as an indicator of Democratic strength in urban liberal bastions during a midterm election. A strong Democratic performance would suggest solid base turnout in cities, while a weakened margin could signal broader challenges for the party. For Republicans, even a modest improvement over their 2022 performance in this district could suggest inroads with suburban and educated voters in New York. The election also matters for House control. While this seat is not expected to be competitive, unexpected shifts in voter behavior in safe districts can affect national narratives and resource allocation for both parties. Downstream consequences include potential impacts on fundraising, candidate recruitment for future cycles, and policy priorities for the district's diverse population of over 700,000 residents.
As of early 2025, Representative Dan Goldman has not formally announced his reelection campaign but is widely expected to run. No significant Republican challengers have emerged. The district boundaries remain unchanged from 2022, as New York's next redistricting will not occur until after the 2030 census. Local political attention is focused on potential Democratic primary challenges, though none have materialized. The New York State legislature has not proposed changes to election laws that would significantly affect the 2026 contest.
The district includes Lower Manhattan neighborhoods like the Financial District, Battery Park City, Tribeca, SoHo, and Greenwich Village. In Brooklyn, it covers parts of Park Slope, Gowanus, Red Hook, Sunset Park, and Borough Park.
The current configuration of NY-10 has never elected a Republican. The last Republican to represent any portion of this territory was Congressman Bill Green, who lost reelection in 1992 when his district was renumbered as the 15th.
The filing deadline for congressional candidates in New York typically falls in early April of the election year. For 2026, the exact date will be set by the New York State Board of Elections in late 2025.
Goldman serves on the House Homeland Security Committee and the House Oversight and Accountability Committee. On Homeland Security, he is the ranking member of the Counterterrorism, Law Enforcement, and Intelligence Subcommittee.
New York City uses ranked-choice voting for local and federal primary elections. Voters rank up to five candidates in order of preference. If no candidate receives over 50% of first-choice votes, the last-place candidate is eliminated and their votes redistributed until a winner emerges.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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