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$1.92K
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Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
More markets for the Scottish Cup game, scheduled for January 6 at 2:45 PM ET.
Prediction markets are pricing in a 63% probability that the Scottish Cup match between Livingston FC and St Mirren FC will feature over 1.5 total goals. This moderate confidence level suggests the market views a two-goal or higher outcome as the more likely scenario, but it is far from a guaranteed bet. With only $2,000 in total volume spread thinly across five related markets, this low liquidity indicates the consensus is not backed by heavy capital, making the current price more susceptible to sharp moves from minor news or last-minute bets.
The primary factor supporting the "Over" probability is the recent form and historical context of both teams. St Mirren, sitting mid-table in the Scottish Premiership, has shown a more potent attack compared to Livingston, who are anchored at the bottom of the league. Defensive struggles have plagued Livingston all season, making them particularly vulnerable to conceding multiple goals. Furthermore, cup matches like this Scottish Cup fixture often feature more open play than league contests, as teams may take greater risks, increasing the likelihood of goals beyond a conservative 1.5 line.
The immediate catalyst is the match kickoff itself on January 6 at 2:45 PM ET. Any last-minute team news, such as a key attacking player being ruled out for St Mirren or a defensive lineup change for Livingston, could swing the odds in the final hours of trading. A low-event, tactical start to the match would see probability shift toward the "Under." Given the thin liquidity, even a modest-sized bet could move the market price significantly before resolution. The market's low volume makes it a poor indicator of strong consensus, so the final outcome is highly contingent on in-game events.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic focuses on the Scottish Cup fourth round match between Livingston FC and St Mirren FC, scheduled for January 6 at 2:45 PM ET. The 'More Markets' designation indicates that beyond the standard match outcome markets, specialized betting markets are available for this specific fixture, including options like exact score predictions, first goalscorer, halftime/fulltime results, total goals, and various player-specific propositions. These markets allow participants to make predictions on more granular aspects of the game beyond simply which team will win. The Scottish Cup, established in 1873, is Scotland's premier knockout football competition, featuring clubs from all levels of Scottish football, making this match part of a historic tournament where lower-division clubs can challenge top-flight opponents. Livingston, currently in the Scottish Championship (second tier), faces Premiership side St Mirren in a classic cup matchup where league standings become less predictive. The timing in early January places this match during a congested holiday fixture period in Scottish football, potentially affecting team selection and fitness levels. Interest in these markets stems from the unpredictable nature of cup competitions, the specific tactical matchup between these two clubs, and the availability of detailed statistical data that informs specialized betting propositions.
Livingston and St Mirren have met 46 times in competitive fixtures since their first encounter in 1995, with St Mirren holding a slight advantage with 18 wins to Livingston's 16, plus 12 draws. Their most memorable cup meeting occurred in the 2004 Scottish League Cup semifinal, where Livingston emerged 3-1 winners at Hampden Park before going on to win the trophy, their only major honor. In the Scottish Cup specifically, the teams have met twice before, with St Mirren winning a third-round replay 2-0 in January 2019 after a 0-0 draw, and Livingston winning 2-1 in a fourth-round match in January 2021. The 2021 victory was particularly significant as it came during Livingston's most successful Premiership campaign. St Mirren have historically been stronger in this competition, having won the Scottish Cup in 1926, 1959, and 1987, while Livingston's best performance was reaching the final in 2004, where they lost to Celtic. The clubs represent different footballing traditions, with St Mirren founded in 1877 as one of Scotland's oldest clubs, while Livingston originated in 1943 as Ferranti Thistle before multiple rebrandings and relocations. Their geographical proximity in central Scotland adds a regional dimension to the fixture, though it doesn't constitute a traditional derby.
Beyond the immediate footballing contest, this match has significant financial implications for both clubs. The Scottish Cup offers substantial prize money, with fourth-round winners receiving £67,500 compared to £45,000 for losers, a meaningful sum especially for Championship side Livingston. Progress to later rounds brings increased gate receipts, television revenue, and potential sponsorship exposure. For Livingston, a victory over Premiership opposition could provide momentum for their promotion push and demonstrate their readiness for top-flight football. For St Mirren, cup success represents an opportunity to secure European football, which would bring approximately £3 million in additional revenue. The match also matters for Scottish football's competitive balance, as cup upsets help maintain the tournament's magic and demonstrate that financial disparities between divisions don't always determine outcomes. Local economies in Livingston and Paisley benefit from matchday spending, with an estimated £500,000 economic impact from a single cup match involving travel, hospitality, and retail. The prediction markets surrounding this fixture reflect broader interest in football analytics and the growing sophistication of sports betting markets, which have become a significant aspect of modern football fandom and engagement.
Both teams enter this match following the winter break in Scottish football, with their last competitive matches played on December 30. Livingston defeated Arbroath 2-1 to maintain their position in the Championship playoff places, while St Mirren lost 2-1 to Rangers in the Premiership. Team news indicates Livingston will be without defender Mikey Devlin due to suspension, while St Mirren have concerns about midfielder Keanu Baccus who picked up a knock in training. The match will be played at Livingston's Tony Macaroni Arena, which has an artificial pitch that may advantage the home side accustomed to the surface. Weather forecasts suggest dry conditions with temperatures around 4°C (39°F), typical for early January in central Scotland. Ticket sales indicate a near-capacity crowd expected, with St Mirren allocating their full away supporter section of 1,800 tickets.
The match kicks off at 7:45 PM GMT on January 6. This is 2:45 PM Eastern Time for North American viewers and converts to 8:45 PM Central European Time.
In the UK, the match is being broadcast live on BBC Scotland. International viewers can watch via the BBC iPlayer with a UK TV license or through their local broadcast partners who have acquired Scottish Cup rights.
The Tony Macaroni Arena has a capacity of 9,512 spectators. The stadium features an artificial playing surface, which is used by approximately one-third of Scottish professional clubs.
In their last five meetings across all competitions, St Mirren have won three, Livingston have won one, and one match ended in a draw. Their most recent meeting was a 2-0 St Mirren victory in the Premiership in May 2023.
The winning club receives £67,500 in prize money for reaching the fifth round, while the losing club receives £45,000. This represents a £22,500 difference that is significant for clubs' annual budgets.
St Mirren are generally priced as favorites at approximately 4/6 (1.67 decimal), with Livingston around 4/1 (5.00 decimal) and the draw at 3/1 (4.00 decimal), reflecting St Mirren's Premiership status and stronger recent form.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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