Name: UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
End: 2026-03-01T04:59:59.999Z

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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card) | PredictPedia

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

9 markets tracked

Fight to Go the Distance?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Fight to Go the Distance?	Poly	100%
Over/Under 0.5 Rounds	Poly	100%
Over/Under 1.5 Rounds	Poly	100%
Over/Under 2.5 Rounds	Poly	100%
Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%
Will the fight be won by submission?	Poly	0%
UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Poly	0%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%
Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?	Poly	0%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, March 1, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
**Category:** Sports | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2026 (0 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Vera" if Marlon Vera is officially declared the winner of the fight against David Martinez at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, scheduled for February 28, 2026.

It will resolve to "Martinez" if David Martinez is officially declared the winner.

If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond March 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50."

The resolution source for this market will be official in

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the fight between Marlon Vera and David Martinez at UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh, scheduled for February 28, 2026, goes the full scheduled number of rounds and the result is determined by the judges' scorecards. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." 

Draws"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $645.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.39M
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.27)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Fight to Go the Distance?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $5.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $493
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the fight be won by submission?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $228
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Over/Under 0.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $233
  DATA: [Over: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 5. Over/Under 1.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $218
  DATA: [Over: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 6. Over/Under 2.5 Rounds
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $993
  DATA: [Over: 100.0% (0.0%)] | [Under: 0.1% (0.0%)]

### 7. UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $633.8K
  DATA: [Vera: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [Martinez: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $208
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2026): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Market Insights

Average Yes Price

44¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gCAGch" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)"></iframe>

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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

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Fight to Go the Distance?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Markets (9)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?

Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?

Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?

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Fight to Go the Distance?

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UFC Fight Night: Marlon Vera vs. David Martinez (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Fight to Go the Distance?

Fight to Go the Distance?

Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?

Will David Martinez win by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by submission?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?

Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?

Will Marlon Vera win by KO or TKO?

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Discussion

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