$25.57K
1
35
$25.57K
1
35
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve to the country whose candidate for Eurovision 2026 places last in the final. If no last place country is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on identifying which country will finish last in the Eurovision Song Contest 2026 final. Eurovision is an annual international song competition organized by the European Broadcasting Union (EBU). The contest features participants from primarily European countries, though nations like Australia and Israel also compete. Each country submits one original song, performed live on television. The winner is determined by a combination of professional jury votes and public televotes from all participating countries. The last-place finisher receives the fewest combined points. The 2026 contest will be the 71st edition, following the 2025 event. Interest in predicting the last-place finisher stems from Eurovision's massive global audience, which exceeded 160 million viewers in 2023, and the cultural and political narratives that often surround poor performance. Historically, finishing last can be seen as a national embarrassment, influence future participation decisions, and affect the careers of the artists involved. The market resolves based on official results from Eurovision.tv or a consensus of credible reporting.
The Eurovision Song Contest began in 1956 with seven participating countries. The concept of a clear last-place finisher has always been inherent to its points-based ranking system. Historically, certain countries have been more frequent occupants of last place. The United Kingdom holds the record for the most last-place finishes in the final, with 15 occurrences as of 2024. Germany and Norway have also finished last multiple times. A significant precedent was set in 2015 when Austria's entry, 'I Am Yours' by The Makemakes, received zero points from both the jury and public vote, finishing last. This was the first time a song received 'nul points' under the then-current voting system. The 2021 contest saw the United Kingdom's James Newman earn zero points from the televote, securing last place. These events highlight how last place can result from a combination of factors including song quality, staging, political voting dynamics, and simply being overshadowed by stronger entries. The rules for breaking ties for last place have evolved, with current EBU statutes providing the definitive method.
Finishing last at Eurovision has tangible consequences beyond mere disappointment. For the participating artist, it can damage a career, with the 'nul points' stigma creating a lasting public narrative. For the national broadcaster, poor performance can lead to internal scrutiny, reduced public interest, and debates over financial investment in future contests. In some cases, consistent poor results have prompted countries to withdraw temporarily, as the UK did after its 2003 last-place finish, not returning until 2006. Culturally, a last-place result often sparks national media discussion about a country's musical identity and its place in Europe. It can become a political talking point, with commentators sometimes linking results to a nation's international standing or diplomatic relationships. For the contest itself, the drama of the 'wooden spoon' adds a narrative layer for viewers and media, contributing to the event's broad appeal and the ecosystem of fan analysis and betting markets that surround it.
The specific participants and entries for Eurovision 2026 are unknown as of early 2025. The lineup will be determined throughout late 2025 and early 2026 as national broadcasters select their artists and songs. The host city for the 2026 contest will be announced after the 2025 winner is known. Prediction markets for the 2026 last-place finisher are speculative at this stage, often relying on early indicators like a country's recent track record, the reputation of its selection process, and broader geopolitical factors that might influence voting patterns. The official rules from the EBU for the 2026 contest, including any modifications to the voting system, will be published closer to the event.
The United Kingdom has finished last in the Grand Final a record 15 times. Their most recent last-place finish was in 2021 with James Newman's song 'Embers'.
Yes. Under the modern voting system, Austria in 2015 and the United Kingdom in 2021 received zero points from both the jury and televote, finishing last. Several countries received 'nul points' under older voting formats.
Each participating country awards two sets of points: one from a national jury of music professionals and one from public televotes. Each set gives 12, 10, and 8-1 points to their top ten favorite songs. The combined total determines the final ranking.
Sometimes. For example, the United Kingdom withdrew for three years after finishing last in 2003. However, many countries continue participating, viewing it as a cultural event beyond competitive success.
The tie is broken according to official EBU rules. The standard procedure is to count which song received points from the highest number of countries. If still tied, the song with the highest number of 12-point scores wins, and so on.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
35 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
| Poly | 19% |
 | Poly | 11% |
 | Poly | 9% |
 | Poly | 9% |
 | Poly | 7% |
 | Poly | 6% |
 | Poly | 6% |
 | Poly | 6% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 5% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 4% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 3% |
 | Poly | 2% |
 | Poly | 2% |
 | Poly | 2% |
 | Poly | 1% |
 | Poly | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gCpCLj" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Eurovision Last Place 2026"></iframe>