$133.59K
2
57
$133.59K
2
57
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market addresses whether former President Donald Trump will grant presidential pardons, commutations, or reprieves during a potential second term in office, specifically before January 1, 2027. A presidential pardon is an executive grant of clemency that absolves an individual of federal criminal convictions and restores certain civil rights. The market resolves to 'Yes' if any such act is formally issued during that timeframe. The topic has gained attention due to Trump's unprecedented use of clemency power during his first term and speculation about his intentions for a second term. Interest stems from political observers, legal analysts, and market participants attempting to forecast potential beneficiaries, which could include former associates, political allies, or individuals convicted in cases Trump has publicly criticized. The market includes an early close condition triggered by the issuance of any pardon, making it a direct bet on whether Trump will exercise this constitutional power again. The 2024 election outcome is a prerequisite for this scenario, making the market contingent on Trump winning the presidency. Discussions often focus on specific high-profile cases and the legal and political implications of presidential clemency.
The presidential pardon power originates from Article II, Section 2 of the U.S. Constitution, stating the President 'shall have Power to grant Reprieves and Pardons for Offences against the United States, except in Cases of Impeachment.' This power is broad and not subject to congressional approval or judicial review. Historically, presidents have used pardons for various reasons, from post-war reconciliation to correcting perceived judicial injustices. A significant modern precedent was set by President Gerald Ford, who pardoned former President Richard Nixon in September 1974 for any crimes he may have committed related to the Watergate scandal. This act was controversial but was argued by Ford to help the nation heal. President Bill Clinton's last-day pardons in January 2001, including for fugitive financier Marc Rich, also generated substantial controversy and congressional hearings. Trump's first-term pardon activity continued this pattern of politically contentious grants. He issued 65 pardons and commutations in his final month in office alone, a higher volume than most modern presidents. His actions demonstrated a preference for clemency for personal associates, media personalities who supported him, and individuals whose cases were promoted by influential friends.
The use of the pardon power has direct implications for the rule of law and public perception of justice. Critics argue that pardons for political allies or those convicted of obstructing investigations into the president's own conduct can undermine the integrity of the legal system. It can be seen as placing individuals above the law if clemency appears motivated by personal or political loyalty rather than mercy or justice. For the individuals involved, a pardon provides immediate relief from federal punishment and restores rights like voting and gun ownership. However, it does not expunge the conviction from the record and does not apply to state charges. Politically, a flurry of controversial pardons could impact congressional dynamics, potentially reigniting debates over reforms to the pardon power. It could also influence the morale and operations of the Department of Justice, signaling presidential intervention in cases the department prosecuted. For prediction markets, this topic matters as a measurable indicator of political behavior and a test of market participants' ability to forecast executive actions with significant legal and symbolic weight.
As of late 2024, Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for the November 2024 presidential election. No pardons can be issued by him unless he wins the election and is inaugurated on January 20, 2025. Speculation about potential pardons is based on his past actions, public statements, and the legal situations of his associates. Several figures, like Peter Navarro, are currently serving sentences for crimes arising from investigations into Trump. Others, like those charged in special counsel Jack Smith's federal election interference case, could become pardon candidates if convicted. Trump has publicly hinted at a willingness to pardon January 6 defendants, calling them 'hostages' in a September 2023 interview. The Office of the Pardon Attorney at the Department of Justice, which traditionally reviews applications, may see its role diminished if Trump returns to office, as he bypassed it frequently during his first term.
No. The presidential pardon power applies only to federal crimes prosecuted by the United States government. It has no effect on convictions under state law, such as those brought by state attorneys general in New York or Georgia.
A pardon forgives the crime and restores civil rights, often granted after a sentence is served. A commutation reduces or eliminates a prison sentence but does not forgive the crime or restore rights. Both are forms of clemency.
Trump has not released a specific list. He has made general statements, including in a January 2024 town hall where he said he would 'absolutely' pardon January 6 defendants, and has referred to them as 'hostages.' He has also defended individuals convicted in cases related to him.
This is an unresolved constitutional question that has never been tested. Most legal scholars argue a self-pardon is likely invalid, as it contradicts the basic legal principle that no one should be the judge in their own case. The Department of Justice's Office of Legal Counsel stated in a 1974 memo that a president cannot self-pardon.
A pardon is a final executive act. Once granted, it cannot be revoked by a subsequent president. The effects of the pardon, such as clearing the legal disability from the conviction, are permanent under federal law.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
45 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Polymarket | Kalshi | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 29% | 1% |
 | 18% | 13% | 5% |
| 17% | 12% | 6% |
| 19% | 10% | 9% |
| 11% | 12% | 1% |
| 11% | 10% | 1% |
| 12% | 7% | 5% |
| 7% | 10% | 2% |
| 9% | 8% | 1% |
 | 9% | 8% | 1% |
Different
Similar
Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No related news found
Polymarket
$133.59K
Kalshi
$0.00
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gEBvIv" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will Trump pardon in 2026?"></iframe>