GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform

Event GroupKALSHIPOLYMARKETCross-Platform2 EventsPolitics

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

Name: Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
End: 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$948.60K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

Vol

$948.60K

Events

Markets

Polymarket Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $452.13K

Kalshi

markets · $496.47K

Price Spread

2.2%avg

max 4.5%

Arbitrage

of 12 cross-platform

Calculate

Volume DistributionTotal: $948.60K

48%

52%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

50 markets tracked

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

Arbitrage

No data available

Cross-Platform Comparison(12)

Market	Polymarket	Kalshi	Diff
Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?ARB	14%	17%	2%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?ARB	11%	7%	4%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?ARB	9%	5%	4%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?	6%	7%	1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?ARB	8%	4%	5%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?	5%	6%	1%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?ARB	5%	7%	2%
Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?	5%	6%	1%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?ARB	4%	6%	2%
Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?	4%	6%	2%

Single-Platform Markets(38)

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

30%

Top Probability

$948.60K

Volume

Markets

1.1%

Price Gap

About This Event

Before Jan 1, 2027 If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, September 28, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will Trump pardon in 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 1, 2027

If X has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted. This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual i"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $948.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $412.8K
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 2.30)
* **Platform Split:** Polymarket (28 mkts) vs Kalshi (34 mkts)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump pardon Roger Ver before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 4.5% spread between platforms.

### 2. Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $22.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $72.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.1% spread between platforms.

### 3. Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.8% spread between platforms.

### 4. Will Trump pardon Himself before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $13.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $13.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 5. Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $135.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $71.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.7% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.6% spread between platforms.

### 6. Will Trump pardon Julian Assange before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $4.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.4% spread between platforms.

### 7. Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $25.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $87.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.8% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.2% spread between platforms.

### 8. Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.3% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $8.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 3.7% spread between platforms.

### 9. Will Trump pardon Diddy before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $30.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.8% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $55.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.5% spread between platforms.

### 10. Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $7.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.7% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.2% spread between platforms.

### 11. Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $295
  DATA: [Yes: 5.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $2.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.1% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 1.1% spread between platforms.

### 12. Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $17.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]
  > **ALERT:** 2.0% spread between platforms.

### 13. Will Michael Cohen receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $13.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Leonard Glenn Francis receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $2.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will Charlie Javice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will Jho Low receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will Tal Alexander receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $10
  DATA: [Yes: 6.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.2% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will Braden John Karony receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $350
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $29.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.3% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $8.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will Bill Hwang receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.8% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will Aimee Bock receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $117
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $24.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.3% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will Nicolás Maduro receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $18.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.0% (0.0%)]

### 28. Will Kenneth Petty receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $9.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 29. Will Torence Hatch receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.2% (0.0%)]

### 30. Will Robin Smith receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $487
  DATA: [Yes: 8.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.8% (0.0%)]

### 31. Will Matt Borges receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 5.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.8% (0.0%)]

### 32. Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $205
  DATA: [Yes: 8.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.0% (0.0%)]

### 33. Will Joseph Maldonado receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $797
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 34. Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 2, 2027): Vol $6.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 35. Will Trump pardon Andrew Tate before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $1.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.4% (0.0%)]

### 36. Will Trump pardon Elon Musk before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $52.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.7% (0.0%)]

### 37. Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 38. Will Trump pardon Young Thug before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.3% (0.0%)]

### 39. Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $4.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 40. Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $508
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 41. Will Trump pardon Roger Stone before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 42. Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $5.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 43. Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

### 44. Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.2% (0.0%)]

### 45. Will Trump pardon Do Kwon before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $23.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.7% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 46. Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 47. Will Trump pardon Donald Brodie before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 48. Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $31.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 49. Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $30.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 50. Will Trump pardon Nicolas Maduro before 2027?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 1, 2027): Vol $10.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

Rules & Resolution

Differs

Rules

Different

Timing

Similar

KALSHIPolitics

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?

Volume$496.47K

Markets34

POLYMARKETPolitics

Who will Trump pardon before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Volume$452.13K

Markets28

50 of 50

Sort:

KALSHI

Will Michael Cohen receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 30.0¢No 70.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Michael Cohen receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

If Michael Cohen has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

POLYMARKET

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

POLYMARKET

PMPolymarket

Yes 20.5¢No 79.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump pardon Stefan Brodie before 2027?

KALSHI

Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 18.5¢No 81.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

If Rachel Cherwitz has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

KALSHI

Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

If Nicole Daedone has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

Arbitrage Opportunity: 2.0% difference

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

POLYMARKETKALSHI

Platform Price Comparison

Average15.5%

Polymarket

14.5%

Kalshi+2.0%

16.5%

Difference:2.0% Arbitrage!

Kalshi higher

PMPolymarket

Yes 14.5¢No 85.5¢

KKalshi

Yes 16.5¢No 83.5¢

POLYMARKETPolitics

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual i

Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?

If Keonne Rodriguez has been given a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during Trump's second term and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if a pardon is granted.

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Next Market Closes

94d 5h remaining

Jan 01, 2027 4:59 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

6¢

Polymarket

7¢

Kalshi

5¢ price gap

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gEBvIv" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Who will Trump pardon in 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Polymarket Trade on Kalshi

Who will Trump pardon in 2026?