Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Total Volume

$880.21

Events

Markets

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When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Vol

$880.21

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $880.21

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $880.21

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

4 markets tracked

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?	Kalshi	54%
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?	Kalshi	51%
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?	Kalshi	42%
Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?	Kalshi	27%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

54%

Top Probability

$880.21

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Canadian tariffs on the US If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Canadian tariffs on the US

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.g., wire services, only qualifies if the content 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $880
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 8, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 50.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 49.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $225
  DATA: [Yes: 54.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 46.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 8, 2026): Vol $330
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Dec 8, 2026): Vol $325
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Volume$880.21

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 54.0¢No 46.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting

KALSHI

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 50.5¢No 49.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting

KALSHI

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting

KALSHI

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 26.5¢No 73.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting

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When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

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Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

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Educational Context

Events (1)

When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Markets (4)

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

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Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Jan 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Apr 1, 2027?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Dec 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

Will the Prime Minister of Canada announce lower tariffs on U.S. goods before Nov 1, 2026?

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