Fed Decision in December?
PM $4.15M
1
5
Fed Decision in December?
PM $4.15M
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 25 bps increase at 77.5%.
Polymarket
- 25 bps increase77.5%
- No change19.5%
- 50+ bps increase2.5%
- 25 bps decrease0.7%
- 50+ bps decrease0.4%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $4.15M
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This Polymarket event asks how the target federal funds rate will change after the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting. The market uses the upper bound of the target range and resolves to the basis point change "versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting" [1]. The stated resolution source is the FOMC statement after the meeting "scheduled for December 8-9, 2026" [1].
The rules also set edge cases. If the rate changes by an amount not shown in the options, the change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and resolves to the matching bracket [1]. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the market resolves to the "No change" bracket [1].
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-20T08:39:44.735Z [1]. The prices are therefore a record from the observation time, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices.
Five binary markets from this event are included. The Yes prices are 0.775 for an increase of 25 basis points, 0.195 for no change, 0.0255 for an increase of 50 or more, 0.0065 for a decrease of 25, and 0.0035 for a decrease of 50 or more [1]. These are snapshot prices, not verified probabilities. The five Yes prices sum to about 1.005, so they should not be read as a clean probability distribution.
The listed close times also differ. Each market shows an end date of 2026-12-09T23:59:00.000Z, while the provider's listed end time is 2026-12-10T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The evidence does not explain this gap, so readers should check the exact timing rules before relying on either time.
What remains uncertain
All five saved markets for this event are included, but the record does not establish that the provider lists every possible real-world outcome [1]. The evidence contains no volume, liquidity, or trader counts, and it gives no reason for any price. It includes only one platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible. Different brackets are separate contracts, so price differences between them are not an arbitrage signal. The evidence also does not say what the Federal Reserve will decide.
References
- Polymarket: Fed Decision in December?. Provider data observed 2026-10-20T06:00:05.944Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 20, 2026 UTCAI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.