
Fed Decision in January?
PM $670.1K
1
5
Fed Decision in January?

PM $670.1K
1
5
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is No change at 59.5%.
Polymarket
- No change59.5%
- 25 bps increase36.5%
- 25 bps decrease1.4%
- 50+ bps increase1.4%
- 50+ bps decrease0.7%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $670.1K
Reported volume · provider units
5
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC
About This Event
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.