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Events
GroupPOLYMARKET

Fed Decision in January?

Fed Decision in January?
Vol

PM $670.1K

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Events

1

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Markets

5

Current odds

Snapshot from

As of Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is No change at 59.5%.

Polymarket

  1. No change59.5%
  2. 25 bps increase36.5%
  3. 25 bps decrease1.4%
  4. 50+ bps increase1.4%
  5. 50+ bps decrease0.7%

Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks

PM $670.1K

Reported volume · provider units

5

Saved contracts

0

Same-question pairs

Source snapshot: Oct 21, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC

About This Event

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.

PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Fed decision in Oct 2026?

Fed decision in Oct 2026?

PM $51.46M · K 13.20M contracts

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 87.5%Rules differK Yes 87.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting?

Related contracts

PM Yes 12.5%Rules differK Yes 1.5%

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Kalshi: Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 12.5%Rules differK Yes 12%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

7 saved comparisonsNext deadline Oct 29, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed Decision in December?

Fed Decision in December?

PM $4.16M
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 77.5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 19.5%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?Yes 2.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC
PolymarketKalshiEconomics
Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Number of rate cuts in 2026?

PM $54.58M · K 10.76M contracts

Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 0 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 96.5%Rules differK Yes 95.4%

Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 1 time?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 1.1%Rules differK Yes 3.7%

Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?

Kalshi: Will the Fed cut rates 2 times?

Same question, fine print differs

PM Yes 0.4%Rules differK Yes 0.6%

Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.

Saved prices; check contract rules.

13 saved comparisonsNext deadline Jan 1, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

PM $1.88M
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?Yes 80.8%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?Yes 10.6%
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?Yes 7.2%
+17 moreNext deadline Dec 31, 2026 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

PM $60.7K
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 50%
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 16.5%
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)?Yes 9%
+6 moreNext deadline Jan 27, 2027 UTC
PolymarketEconomy
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

PM $386.7K
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 68.5%
Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 18.5%
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?Yes 8.5%
+2 moreNext deadline Dec 9, 2026 UTC

Market Insights

Price gaps of 2 pp+

0

Same-question pairs

0

No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.

Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.

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