Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

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Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

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Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

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Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?	Kalshi	26%
Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?	Kalshi	13%
Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?	Kalshi	9%
Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?	Kalshi	7%

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About This Event

On Oct 25, 2026 If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the Student list if the Student list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the Student list loses. If the Student list wins, the margin will be positive; if the Student list loses, the margin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Student list margin of victory in Serbia?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 25, 2026

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above X then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind the Student list if the Student list wins, or the candidate that finishes first if the Student list loses. If the Student list wins, the margin will be positive; if the Student list loses, the margin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behi"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 25.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 74.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 25, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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KALSHIElections

Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

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KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 25.5¢No 74.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 5%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behi

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 8.5¢No 91.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 15%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

KALSHI

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.5¢No 93.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

If the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election is at or above 20%, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The margin of victory is the vote share received by the Student list minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately beh

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Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

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Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

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Events (1)

Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

Markets (4)

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

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Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Student list margin of victory in Serbia?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 5%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 10%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 15%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

Will the margin of victory for Student list in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be at least 20%?

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