Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIFinancials

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Total Volume

$18.24K

Events

Markets

Trade on Kalshi

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Vol

$18.24K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $18.24K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.24K

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

27 markets tracked

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(27)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	100%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	84%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	80%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	80%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.56% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	76%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.55% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	68%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.54% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	64%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.53% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	57%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.52% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	55%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.51% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	50%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.50% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	49%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.49% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	47%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.48% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	44%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.46% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.47% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.45% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.44% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	38%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	33%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	30%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	27%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.39% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	25%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	23%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.37% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	22%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.36% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	21%
Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.35% by Oct 30, 2026?	Kalshi	19%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

100%

Top Probability

$18.24K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

By Oct 30, 2026 If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first p

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
**Category:** Financials | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** By Oct 30, 2026

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below X on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solely on the Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rate for the 30-year tenor as published by the U.S. Department of the Treasury for each business day in this period; intraday values are not considered. The first p

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.61% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved
This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026.
Resolution is based solel"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.2K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 99.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 0.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $2.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 83.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 16.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $774
  DATA: [Yes: 80.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $541
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.56% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $718
  DATA: [Yes: 76.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 24.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.55% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 68.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 32.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.54% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $444
  DATA: [Yes: 63.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 36.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.53% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 57.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 42.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.52% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 54.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 45.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.51% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $696
  DATA: [Yes: 50.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.0% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.50% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $374
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.49% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $70
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.48% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $5
  DATA: [Yes: 44.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 56.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.47% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $716
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.46% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $735
  DATA: [Yes: 40.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.45% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $213
  DATA: [Yes: 38.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.44% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $325
  DATA: [Yes: 37.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 62.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.43% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $256
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 20. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.42% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $66
  DATA: [Yes: 30.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.0% (0.0%)]

### 21. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.41% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $371
  DATA: [Yes: 29.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 70.5% (0.0%)]

### 22. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.40% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $248
  DATA: [Yes: 27.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.0% (0.0%)]

### 23. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.39% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 25.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 75.0% (0.0%)]

### 24. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.38% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $276
  DATA: [Yes: 23.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.0% (0.0%)]

### 25. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.37% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $29
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 26. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.36% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $123
  DATA: [Yes: 20.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.5% (0.0%)]

### 27. Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.35% by Oct 30, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 1, 2026): Vol $936
  DATA: [Yes: 19.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIFinancials

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Volume$18.24K

Markets27

27 of 27

Sort:

KALSHI

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 99.5¢No 0.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.61% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 83.5¢No 16.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.60% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 80.0¢No 20.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.59% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.58% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

KALSHI

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 76.0¢No 24.0¢

KALSHIEconomics

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

If the daily published par yield for the 30-year U.S. Treasury is below 5.57% on any business day between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: How this is resolved This market covers the period between Oct 1, 2026 and Oct 30, 2026. Resolution is based solel

No related news found

Discussion

0 Comments

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

49¢

Kalshi

Arbitrage Opps

Cross-Platform

Embed Widget

Add this market to your website

Volume

Platforms

HTML

<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gLWsac" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?"></iframe>

Trade This Market

Trade on Kalshi

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Markets (27)

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Market Insights

Share

Embed Widget

Trade This Market

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

How low will the 30-year US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.61% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.60% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.59% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.58% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

Will the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield be below 5.57% by Oct 30, 2026?

Related News & Context

Discussion

Share

Embed Widget