Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Estonia parliamentary election winner?

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Estonia parliamentary election winner?

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Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

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Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	Kalshi	47%
Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	Kalshi	37%
Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	Kalshi	6%
Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	Kalshi	5%
Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?	Kalshi	5%

AI Analysis

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47%

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About This Event

in 2027 If X wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. Seats are counted as awarded by the National Electoral Committee in the 101-seat Riigikogu, including personal, district and compensation

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Estonia parliamentary election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** in 2027

If X wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to Yes and all others to No. Seats are counted as awarded by the National Electoral Committee in the 101-seat Riigikogu, including personal, district and compensation 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Social Democratic Party wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same numbe"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 47.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 6, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Estonia parliamentary election winner?

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KALSHI

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 47.0¢No 53.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

If the Centre Party wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats,

KALSHI

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.0¢No 63.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

If Isamaa wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one w

KALSHI

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

If EKRE wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats, the one wit

KALSHI

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 5.0¢No 95.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

If the Reform Party wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same number of seats,

KALSHI

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

If the Social Democratic Party wins the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: For parliamentary/legislative elections, the winner is the party, coalition, or alliance winning the most seats in the specified chamber. If two parties have the same numbe

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gUxaKo" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Estonia parliamentary election winner?"></iframe>

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Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

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Events (1)

Estonia parliamentary election winner?

Markets (5)

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

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Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Estonia parliamentary election winner?

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Centre Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will Isamaa win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will EKRE win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Reform Party win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Will the Social Democrats win the 2027 Estonian parliamentary election?

Related News & Context

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