GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

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How high will unemployment get in 2026?

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

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Kalshi

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14 markets tracked

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

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Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)	Kalshi	47%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)	Kalshi	23%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)	Kalshi	14%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)	Kalshi	14%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)	Kalshi	10%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6%)	Kalshi	9%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 7%)	Kalshi	4%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 9%)	Kalshi	3%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 8%)	Kalshi	3%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 10%)	Kalshi	3%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 12%)	Kalshi	3%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 15%)	Kalshi	2%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 20%)	Kalshi	2%
How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 17%)	Kalshi	2%

AI Analysis

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47%

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About This Event

Before 2027 If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above X the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit. This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How high will unemployment get in 2026?
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before 2027

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above X the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit. This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 46.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 53.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 9%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 6. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 8%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

### 7. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 7%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 9.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 20%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 17%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 15%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 1.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.1% (0.0%)]

### 13. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 12%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 14. How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 10%)
- **Kalshi** (End: Mar 9, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.4% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

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KALSHI

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 46.5¢No 53.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.5%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.5¢No 77.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 4.8%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.6¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 5.5%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

KALSHI

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.5¢No 90.5¢

KALSHIEconomics

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

If any U.S. seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate for a month in 2026 is above 6.5%, the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire if a threshold is hit.

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How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

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Events (1)

How high will unemployment get in 2026?

Markets (14)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

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How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

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How high will unemployment get in 2026?

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 4.8%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 5.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

How high will unemployment get before 2027? (Above 6.5%)

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