Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?

Name: Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
End: 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$344.65

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?

Vol

$344.65

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $344.65

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $344.65

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	Poly	91%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

91%

Top Probability

$344.65

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Arkansas Issue 1, the Citizens Only Voting Amendment, is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arkansas in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arkansas Constitution to provide that only citizens of the United States may vote in elections in Arkansas. This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arkansas statewide general election currently scheduled

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Nov 4, 2026 (24 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Arkansas Issue 1, the Citizens Only Voting Amendment, is a legislatively referred measure that is scheduled to appear as a ballot measure in Arkansas in the statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, which would amend the Arkansas Constitution to provide that only citizens of the United States may vote in elections in Arkansas.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if this ballot measure is approved as a result of the Arkansas statewide general election currently scheduled

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $345
* **Total Liquidity:** $10.4K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $345
  DATA: [Yes: 91.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.6% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics