US Nominal GDP in 2026 | PredictPedia

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21 markets tracked

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

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Single-Platform Markets(21)

Market	Platform	Price
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)	Kalshi	97%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)	Kalshi	97%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)	Kalshi	97%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)	Kalshi	97%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)	Kalshi	97%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.0 trillion)	Kalshi	96%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.8 trillion)	Kalshi	96%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.2 trillion)	Kalshi	96%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.4 trillion)	Kalshi	95%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.6 trillion)	Kalshi	95%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.8 trillion)	Kalshi	95%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.2 trillion)	Kalshi	94%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.0 trillion)	Kalshi	94%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.4 trillion)	Kalshi	93%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.8 trillion)	Kalshi	86%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.0 trillion)	Kalshi	80%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.2 trillion)	Kalshi	61%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.4 trillion)	Kalshi	46%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.6 trillion)	Kalshi	37%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.8 trillion)	Kalshi	29%
US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $33.0 trillion)	Kalshi	19%

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, April 18, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** US Nominal GDP in 2026
**Category:** Economics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If US Nominal GDP is above X trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If US Nominal GDP is above $33.0 trillion for 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves after the first release of Q4 2026 US Nominal GDP data. This data refers to the calendar year of 2026, not the fiscal year. Early close condition: This market will close and exp"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $33.0 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.8 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 28.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 71.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.6 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 36.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.4 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 45.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 54.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.2 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $32.0 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.8 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.6 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.4 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 92.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 7.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.2 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $31.0 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 93.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 6.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.8 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 94.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.4 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 5.0% (0.0%)]

### 15. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.2 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 16. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.0 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 17. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.8 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.0% (0.0%)]

### 18. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 19. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 20. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 21. US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 1, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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80¢

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US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

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US Nominal GDP in 2026

Markets (21)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)

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US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

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US Nominal GDP in 2026

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $30.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.6 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.4 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.2 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)

US Nominal GDP in 2026? (Above $29.0 trillion)

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