Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETFinance

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?

Name: Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?
End: 2026-10-13T22:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$19.23

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?

Vol

$19.23

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $19.23

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $19.23

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?	Poly	75%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

75%

Top Probability

$19.23

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future (denoted by Pyth as "HN") for the October 13, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the October 13, 2026 trading day is lower than

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Tap to expand

Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?
**Category:** Finance | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 13, 2026 (1 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Critical

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future (denoted by Pyth as "HN") for the October 13, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the most recent prior trading day.

This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the October 13, 2026 trading day is lower than

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future (denoted by Pyth as "HN") for the October 13, 2026 trading day is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of ICE Futures U.S. Henry LD1 Fixed Price Future for the most r"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $19
* **Total Liquidity:** $11
* **Activity Level:** Stable (Vol/Liq Ratio: 1.78)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 13?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 13, 2026): Vol $19
  DATA: [Up: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [Down: 25.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETFinance