Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETCulture

Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Name: Highest grossing movie in 2026?
End: 2027-01-08T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$17.64M

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Markets

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Highest grossing movie in 2026?

Vol

$17.64M

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $17.64M

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $17.64M

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	96%
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	4%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

96%

Top Probability

$17.64M

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no fina

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Highest grossing movie in 2026?
**Category:** Culture | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Jan 8, 2027 (88 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. 

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no fina

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. 

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gr"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $17.64M
* **Total Liquidity:** $2.43M
* **Activity Level:** Moderate (Vol/Liq Ratio: 7.25)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.21M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.31M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $2.48M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.32M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $821.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $619.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $955.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $686.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 95.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 4.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.18M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.06M
  DATA: [Yes: 3.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.2% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $730.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.43M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $628.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026?
- **Polymarket** (End: Jan 8, 2027): Vol $1.22M
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 100.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

POLYMARKETCulture