Snapshot observed 2026-11-04T12:00:06.834Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.

What the contract measures

The main market resolves to "South Carolina" if South Carolina wins the game and to "Arkansas" if Arkansas wins. Overtime is included if played, and a tie resolves 50-50 [1]. The source also says that if the game is canceled, does not start by Monday, November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or is abandoned with no official result by that time, the market resolves 50-50 [1]. The excerpt describes the game as "originally scheduled for Saturday, November 14, 2026 at 7:45 PM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event)" [1]. That is background from the contract wording, not a confirmed event time.

Every market in this sample lists an end time of 2026-11-15T00:45:00.000Z [1]. This closing time, the observation time, and the eventual resolution are separate facts. The supplied evidence does not show when the game was played or when any market resolved.

Reading the snapshot

The provider observed these prices at 12:00 UTC on November 4, 2026, and the source was retrieved at 12:52 UTC the same day [1]. The prices describe that observation only. They are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.

In the main market, South Carolina is quoted at 0.745 and Arkansas at 0.255 [1]. Only one provider is included, so no cross-platform comparison is possible.

The sampled totals markets all show Over at 0.505 and Under at 0.495. These include first-half and second-half lines from 21.5 to 33.5 and a South Carolina team total at 20.5 [1]. Because the quotes are identical across these different lines, the sample does not reveal any difference among them.

The sample includes 12 of 170 markets for this event, so it is a partial sample [1]. Markets were selected by highest finite Yes price, then volume [1]. The 158 omitted markets are not known to be priced lower. They simply were not included, so the 12 shown should not be read as the full field.

What remains uncertain

The supplied evidence does not explain why these prices stand where they do. It contains no news, no reasons for movement, no trader counts, and no volume or liquidity figures, so it cannot show how deep the market is. It also does not report game status after the observation time. Differences in price between markets or platforms should not be treated as an arbitrage opportunity without first checking matching wording, close times, and resolution rules.

References

1. Polymarket: South Carolina vs. Arkansas. Provider data observed 2026-11-04T12:00:06.834Z.