Market snapshot: Oct 13, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Total Volume

$189.70

Events

Markets

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Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Vol

$189.70

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $189.70

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $189.70

100%

Kalshi leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

11 markets tracked

Historical observations can differ from current quotes. Kalshi points are hourly trade averages.

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(11)

Market	Platform	Price
Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	39%
Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	22%
Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	15%
Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	8%
Will Rifatul Bari win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Mike Dutta win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Louise Bloomfield win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Tiffany Ashdown win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Jack McShane win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%
Will Harvey Lennon win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

39%

Top Probability

$189.70

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

October 27, 2026 If X wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Tuesday, October 13, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** October 27, 2026

If X wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Tiffany Ashdown wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $190
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Tiffany Ashdown win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $80
  DATA: [Yes: 9.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rifatul Bari win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 7.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Mike Dutta win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Louise Bloomfield win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 3.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Jack McShane win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 39.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 61.0% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Harvey Lennon win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 27, 2027): Vol $110
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Volume$189.70

Markets11

11 of 11

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KALSHI

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.0¢No 61.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

If John Kelly wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

If Bill Harvey wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.0¢No 85.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

If Charles Wooley wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 9.0¢No 91.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

If Ryan Posselt wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

KALSHI

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 7.5¢No 92.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

If Marti Zucco wins the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated resolution by a consensus of media calls. See full rules for details.

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10¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gcV-Et" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?"></iframe>

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Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

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Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

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About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Markets (11)

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

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Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Hobart Lord Mayor election winner?

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will John Kelly win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Bill Harvey win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Charles Wooley win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Ryan Posselt win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

Will Marti Zucco win the 2026 Hobart Lord Mayor election?

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