Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Total Volume

$7.33K

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Markets

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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Vol

$7.33K

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $7.33K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $7.33K

100%

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Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	97%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	86%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	61%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	36%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	22%
Will Treg Taylor receive at least 14% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?	Kalshi	9%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$7.33K

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About This Event

Vote Percent - Treg Taylor If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in vote

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Vote Percent - Treg Taylor

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is X to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. The percentage is calculated as, total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ total valid votes cast, × 100, rounded to two decimal places. Except as provided in the Contract, resolution is based on certified/official results only, not preliminary results. Write-in vote

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 8% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ to"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $7.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 60.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 39.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 85.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 96.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 3.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 14% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $4.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 12% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $883
  DATA: [Yes: 35.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Volume$7.33K

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KALSHI

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 97.0¢No 3.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 2% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ to

KALSHI

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 96.5¢No 3.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 4% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ to

KALSHI

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 85.5¢No 14.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 6% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ to

KALSHI

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 60.5¢No 39.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 8% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ to

KALSHI

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.5¢No 64.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Treg Taylor in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election is 10% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The percentage is calculated as (total votes received by Treg Taylor ÷ t

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gctg0d" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)"></iframe>

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Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

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Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Events (1)

Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Markets (7)

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Alaska Governor election: Treg Taylor vote percent (1st Round)

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 2% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 4% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 6% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 8% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

Will Treg Taylor receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election?

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