Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? | PredictPedia

Events

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Name: Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$6.56K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $6.56K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $6.56K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

1 market tracked

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(1)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?	Poly	92%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

92%

Top Probability

$6.56K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Dec 31, 2026 (349 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 2026 US Midterm Elections happen on November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $6.6K
* **Total Liquidity:** $9.0K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.73)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?
- **Polymarket** (End: Dec 31, 2026): Vol $6.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 92.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 8.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

348d 1h remaining

Dec 31, 2026 12:00 AM

Market Insights

Average Yes Price

92¢

Polymarket

Arbitrage Opps

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ge5iNM" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?"></iframe>

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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

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Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?

AI Analysis

About This Event

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Educational Context

Events (1)