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GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

Name: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
End: 2026-09-20T00:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$23.75K

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How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

Vol

$23.75K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $23.75K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $23.75K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

7 markets tracked

Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	23%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	22%
Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	20%
Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	18%
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	10%
Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	7%
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

23%

Top Probability

$23.75K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the res

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Thursday, July 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Sep 20, 2026 (66 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.

This market will resolve based on the res

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.

If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, th"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $23.8K
* **Total Liquidity:** $79.3K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.30)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.8% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.3% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will United Russia win between 310 and 324 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 19.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $6.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.4% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 10.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.8% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $1.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 77.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Sep 20, 2026): Vol $8.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics