Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

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$2.71K

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Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Vol

$2.71K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $2.71K

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

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of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.71K

100%

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9 markets tracked

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?	Kalshi	90%
Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?	Kalshi	71%
Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?	Kalshi	37%
Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?	Kalshi	24%
Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?	Kalshi	22%
Will Byron Donalds win Duval County?	Kalshi	19%
Will Byron Donalds win Hillsborough County?	Kalshi	15%
Will Byron Donalds win Osceola County?	Kalshi	11%
Will Byron Donalds win Palm Beach County?	Kalshi	6%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

90%

Top Probability

$2.71K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

In 2026 If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** In 2026

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election X then the market resolves to Yes. This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in St. Lucie County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close cond"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.7K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $445
  DATA: [Yes: 71.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 29.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $190
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 90.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 10.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $206
  DATA: [Yes: 22.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 78.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Byron Donalds win Palm Beach County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 5.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Byron Donalds win Osceola County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $128
  DATA: [Yes: 10.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $1.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 37.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 63.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Byron Donalds win Hillsborough County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 14.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Byron Donalds win Duval County?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 3, 2027): Vol $200
  DATA: [Yes: 18.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 81.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Volume$2.71K

Markets9

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KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 90.0¢No 10.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in Sarasota County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condi

KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 71.0¢No 29.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in St. Lucie County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close cond

KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 37.0¢No 63.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in Miami-Dade County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close con

KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 23.5¢No 76.5¢

KALSHISports

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in Seminole County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condi

KALSHI

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 22.0¢No 78.0¢

KALSHISports

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

If Byron Donalds wins the 2026 Florida gubernatorial general election in Pinellas County, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market is eligible for accelerated determination after a consensus of media organizations project the winner. See full rules for details. Early close condi

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/ggI40K" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?"></iframe>

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Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

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Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

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About This Event

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Educational Context

Events (1)

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Markets (9)

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

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Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Florida Governor: which counties will Byron Donalds win?

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

Will Byron Donalds win Sarasota County?

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

Will Byron Donalds win St. Lucie County?

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

Will Byron Donalds win Miami-Dade County?

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

Will Byron Donalds win Seminole County?

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

Will Byron Donalds win Pinellas County?

Related News & Context

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