This event has ended. Showing historical data.
$298.95K
1
9
$298.95K
1
9
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
On Feb 5, 2026 If the margin of victory for the election winner in the NJ-11 special election Democratic primary falls between X and Y inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type. For percentage points: the vote percentage received by election winner minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind election winner if e
Prediction markets currently give a 100% chance that the winner of the upcoming New Jersey 11th District special Democratic primary will win by a very narrow margin. Specifically, traders are betting that the victory margin will be less than 3 percentage points. This means the market sees the race as essentially a toss-up, where the top two candidates are separated by just a few votes out of every hundred cast.
Two main factors are driving the expectation of an extremely close race. First, the special election is for a solidly Democratic seat, making the primary the real contest. With no incumbent running, several local politicians are likely to jump in, splitting the vote. Second, New Jersey's 11th District itself is a mix of suburban and more rural areas, with towns like Morristown and parts of Sussex County. This isn't a monolithic area, and different candidates could appeal strongly to different factions within the party, preventing any one person from building a large, unified lead early on. Historical data from similar open-seat primaries in safe districts often shows tight results.
The primary is set for February 5, 2026. The biggest factor that could change the current prediction is candidate filing. The field won't be official for some time. Watch for announcements from key local figures, such as mayors, state legislators, or well-known county officials. Once the candidate list is set, early polling and, more importantly, endorsements from major county Democratic committees will be strong signals. A powerful county party line endorsement in New Jersey can still provide a real boost. If one candidate manages to secure most of the county lines early, the market's forecast for a razor-thin margin could shift.
Markets are generally decent at forecasting competitive political primaries, especially when they attract moderate trading volume like this one. However, this event is over a year away, which is a very long time in politics. These current odds reflect the default assumption for an open-seat race with an unknown field. The prediction is reliable as a snapshot of current expectations given the available information, but it should be seen as highly fluid. The odds will likely change significantly once real candidates declare and local campaigning begins.
Prediction markets are pricing in a decisive victory in the NJ-11 special Democratic primary. The leading market on Kalshi, asking if the winner's margin will be between 0% and 3%, is trading at 100%. This price indicates traders see a near-certain probability that the victory margin will be wider than 3%. With $299,000 in total volume across the related markets, there is significant capital backing this consensus view. The market structure suggests participants are highly confident the race will not be close.
Two primary factors explain this pricing. First, the declared Democratic candidate, former Congressman Tom Malinowski, is a well-known incumbent who previously held this seat. He faces no serious, well-funded challenger in the primary. Historical patterns in New Jersey's 11th District show that established Democratic candidates without major intra-party opposition typically secure nomination margins exceeding 10-15 percentage points. Second, the lack of a competitive primary narrative in local or national political reporting confirms the absence of a viable alternative. Market prices reflect this fundamental lack of contest, treating a close margin as a near-impossibility.
The current 100% price on a narrow margin leaves almost no room for error, making it vulnerable to a major shock. A credible, last-minute scandal involving the frontrunner could theoretically tighten the race, but the very short timeline before the February 5, 2026 primary makes this unlikely. The more plausible shift would come from a surprise candidate filing before the deadline or a significant independent expenditure campaign attacking Malinowski. However, given the high volume and conviction behind the current bet, the market judges these scenarios as extremely remote. The odds would only move if tangible evidence of a serious challenger emerges, which political operatives currently see as absent.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market concerns the margin of victory in the Democratic primary for New Jersey's 11th congressional district special election, scheduled for February 5, 2026. The market resolves based on whether the winner's victory margin, calculated as the difference in vote percentage between the first and second-place finishers, falls within a specified range. The election is being held to fill the vacancy created by the resignation of Representative Mikie Sherrill, who announced she would not seek re-election to run for Governor of New Jersey. The NJ-11 district, covering parts of Essex, Morris, and Passaic counties, is considered a Democratic-leaning but competitive suburban area. Political observers are watching this primary closely as an early indicator of Democratic factional strength ahead of the 2026 midterms, with potential implications for control of the narrowly divided U.S. House of Representatives. The margin of victory will signal whether the district's Democratic establishment maintains control or whether more progressive challengers can gain ground in a wealthy, educated suburban constituency.
New Jersey's 11th congressional district has undergone significant political transformation over the past two decades. For decades, it was a Republican stronghold represented by conservatives like Dean Gallo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, who held the seat for 24 years until his 2018 retirement. The district's political shift began with demographic changes in Morris and Essex counties, where an influx of college-educated professionals changed the electorate. In the 2018 midterms, Democrat Mikie Sherrill flipped the seat, defeating Republican Jay Webber 56.6% to 43.2%. She became part of the Democratic wave that gave the party control of the House that year. Sherrill's victories established a new Democratic baseline in the district, though her margins varied. She won by 14.6 points in 2018, 7.3 points in 2020 against Rosemary Becchi, and 14.6 points again in 2022 against Paul DeGroot. The upcoming special election will test whether Democrats can maintain this level of support without an incumbent. The last special election for a New Jersey House seat occurred in 2020 for the 2nd district, where Democrat Amy Kennedy lost to Republican Jeff Van Drew, who had recently switched parties.
The outcome of this primary will influence Democratic strategy for the 2026 midterms, particularly in suburban districts nationwide. A large victory margin for a moderate candidate would reinforce the party's current approach in competitive suburbs. A narrow win or an upset by a progressive could signal shifting dynamics within the Democratic coalition. The election also matters for House control. Democrats currently hold a narrow majority, and every seat is critical for governing. Losing NJ-11 to Republicans in the general election would make maintaining that majority more difficult. For New Jersey politics, the race tests whether the Democratic Party's northern county organizations still have the power to deliver primary victories for their chosen candidates, or whether grassroots movements can overcome establishment machinery. The results will shape political careers and potentially create a new congressional leader who could serve for decades.
As of early 2025, no candidates have officially declared for the Democratic primary, though several are reportedly considering runs. The New Jersey Democratic State Committee is conducting internal polling to assess potential candidates' strengths. County Democratic organizations in Essex, Morris, and Passaic are beginning discussions about whether to coalesce behind a single candidate or allow a contested primary. Governor Phil Murphy, who will appoint someone to temporarily fill the seat until the special election, has not indicated his plans for the appointment. The special election date of February 5, 2026, was set by Governor Murphy in accordance with state law requiring elections to fill House vacancies.
The margin is calculated as the winner's vote percentage minus the second-place finisher's vote percentage. For example, if Candidate A receives 45% and Candidate B receives 35%, the margin is 10 percentage points. The market resolves based on whether this number falls within a specified range.
Only registered Democrats in New Jersey's 11th congressional district can participate. New Jersey has closed primaries, meaning voters must be registered with a party by a deadline before the election to vote in that party's primary. Independent or unaffiliated voters cannot participate.
New Jersey does not have runoff elections for congressional primaries. The candidate with the most votes wins the nomination, regardless of whether they achieve a majority. This plurality system can produce winners with less than 50% support in crowded fields.
The filing deadline is typically 50 days before the special election, which would be around mid-December 2025. However, candidates often announce their intentions months earlier to begin fundraising and organizing. Most serious candidates will likely declare by fall 2025.
The winner will serve the remainder of Sherrill's term, which ends in January 2027. Democrats currently hold a narrow House majority, so every seat matters for passing legislation. Losing this seat in the general election would reduce their margin by one vote.
The last contested Democratic primary in NJ-11 was in 2018, when Mikie Sherrill won a six-candidate field with 76.5% of the vote. Her margin over the second-place finisher was 66.5 percentage points, but that was an open seat with a strong frontrunner rather than a competitive race.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
9 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 0% and 3%? | Kalshi | 100% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 6% and 9%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 24% and 100%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 3% and 6%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 21% and 24%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 18% and 21%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 15% and 18%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 12% and 15%? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will the margin of victory for the election winner in NJ-11 special election Democratic primary be between 9% and 12%? | Kalshi | 1% |
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/gh39_G" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Margin of victory in the NJ-11 special Democratic primary?"></iframe>