Ohio Senate Election: Turnout
PM $50.5K
1
10
Ohio Senate Election: Turnout
PM $50.5K
1
10
Current odds
Snapshot from
As of Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC, the highest-priced outcome on Polymarket is 4.65M-4.8M at 25%.
Polymarket
- 4.65M-4.8M25%
- 4.5M-4.65M12.8%
- 4.95M-5.1M10.9%
- 5.1M+10.4%
- 4.35M-4.5M10.1%
Yes prices. They are not order quotes; check each platform's rules, fees and live prices before trading.
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $50.5K
Reported volume · provider units
10
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Nov 1, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This analysis is awaiting a background update, so its prices may be older than the odds above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event contains ten contracts on total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. The stated resolution basis is "the total number of valid votes cast" [1]. The rules say "Invalidated or blank votes are not included" and that in ranked-choice or preferential systems "the first-round vote total will be used" [1]. The primary source is "the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results" [1].
The brackets cover the full range from under 3,900,000 to 5,100,000 or more. Each bracket has a different boundary, and the rules state that "If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket" [1]. Two adjacent brackets, such as "between 4,650,000 and 4,800,000" and "between 4,800,000 and 4,950,000," therefore depend on that tie-break rule, not on the bracket wording alone [1].
The listed end time is 2026-11-04T04:59:00.000Z [1]. The rules also say that if results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The listed end time and the resolution deadline are separate dates, and neither describes when results will be announced.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z, and the source was retrieved at 2026-10-25T21:59:19.925Z [1]. These are saved values, not live quotes, and they do not show whether a trade could be executed at these levels.
The highest Yes price in the snapshot is 0.241, for total votes of 5,100,000 or more [1]. The next highest is 0.18, for the 4,650,000 to 4,800,000 bracket [1]. The lowest Yes price is 0.0275, for the 4,050,000 to 4,200,000 bracket [1]. The ten Yes prices sum to about 0.972 in this snapshot. Because these are unverified observed prices, that total does not establish a calibrated probability distribution.
All ten saved markets are included in this sample, and the coverage record marks the sample as not partial [1]. The sample warning states that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Since this is one event from one provider, there is no cross-platform comparison here.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why any price is at its observed level, and it does not report trader counts, liquidity, or recent news. Volume is not included in this analysis. Results are not known at the time of this snapshot, and no certified figures are supplied [1].
References
- Polymarket: Ohio Senate Election: Turnout. Provider data observed 2026-10-25T21:00:06.198Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 25, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This contract concerns the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. The resolution source is the official results of that election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying results, although an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1]. Votes that are certified for candidates or non-candidate options are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total is used [1]. The contract is divided into vote-count brackets, and each market asks whether the total will fall in a particular bracket or meet a threshold. The rules state that if the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1]. The rules also set a fallback: if the results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1]. The provider lists an end time of 2026-11-04T04:59:00Z for these markets, but that listed end time is a provider field and should not be read as an announced election date. The underlying event is a midterm contest. Midterm elections in the United States are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term, on the first Tuesday in November, and the federal offices up for election include 33 or 34 of the 100 Senate seats [3]. The Ohio seat is one of those Senate contests. The sources supplied here do not describe the 2026 Ohio candidates, campaign activity, or turnout expectations, so this article does not discuss them.
Historical Context
The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio was held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the Senate for Ohio. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024 [2]. That race was the first U.S. Senate race in Ohio in which an incumbent was defeated since 2006, when Brown defeated Mike DeWine [2]. This history is background only and does not indicate how the 2026 vote count will turn out.
Why It Matters
The contract measures turnout in a specific sense: the number of valid votes counted in one Senate race, not the number of registered voters or the number of people who voted in total [1]. Because blank and invalidated votes are excluded, the resolving figure depends on the official count of valid votes under the rules above [1]. The bracket structure, the higher-bracket rule for exact boundary values, and the March 31, 2027 fallback all determine how a reported total maps to a single winning bracket [1]. Traders evaluating these contracts therefore need to read the resolution language closely, since the outcome depends on the certified or consensus-reported figure rather than on any single news story.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-25 at 21:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What total does this market use to resolve?
It uses the total valid votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Ohio. Invalidated or blank votes are not included, and in ranked-choice or preferential systems the first-round total is used [1].
What happens if the result falls exactly on a bracket boundary?
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, the market resolves to the higher range bracket [1].
What happens if the results are not known in time?
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to the lowest range bracket [1].
Who determines the official figure?
The primary resolution source is the official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the election, though an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used [1].
Do the listed prices show the chance that a bracket will win?
The listed prices are provider snapshots of the Yes and No outcomes for each bracket. The supplied evidence does not establish that they are verified probabilities or executable quotes.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
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Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
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Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Same-question pairs
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