GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Rio Grande do Norte Senate Election: 1st Place

Name: Rio Grande do Norte Senate Election: 1st Place
End: 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z

Total Volume

$20.06K

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Markets

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Rio Grande do Norte Senate Election: 1st Place

Vol

$20.06K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $20.06K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $20.06K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

14 markets tracked

Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(14)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	74%
Will Zenaide Maia win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	7%
Will Samanda de Lula win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	6%
Will Sonia Godeiro win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Coronel Hélio win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Linhares Jiboia win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Luciana Mandu win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Professor Guilherme win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Clóvis Costa do Coletivo Nós win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Gari Wendell Batista win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Rafael Motta win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Rosália Fernandes win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Sandro Pimentel win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%
Will Tércio Tinôco win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

74%

Top Probability

$20.06K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Norte is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the can

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Saturday, September 5, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Rio Grande do Norte Senate Election: 1st Place
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 4, 2026 (29 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Norte is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the can

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Rio Grande do Norte is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.

Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $20.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $97.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.21)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Clóvis Costa do Coletivo Nós win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $582
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Coronel Hélio win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $727
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Gari Wendell Batista win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $558
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.8% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Linhares Jiboia win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $487
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luciana Mandu win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $528
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Professor Guilherme win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $565
  DATA: [Yes: 0.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.7% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Rafael Motta win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $640
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Rosália Fernandes win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $808
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Samanda de Lula win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $888
  DATA: [Yes: 5.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.2% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Sandro Pimentel win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $443
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Sonia Godeiro win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $561
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Styvenson Valentim win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $7.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 74.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 26.0% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Tércio Tinôco win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $474
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 14. Will Zenaide Maia win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte Senate election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 4, 2026): Vol $5.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 7.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 92.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics