Market snapshot: Oct 14, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

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$123.12K

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

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$123.12K

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Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

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Single-Platform Markets(9)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	40%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	35%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	18%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	5%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	4%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.0 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	3%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.9 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	2%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.8 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	1%
Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 14, 2026?	Kalshi	1%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$123.12K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

On Oct 14, 2026 If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Wednesday, October 14, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 14, 2026

If Trump's RCP approval average is X Y at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Trump's RCP approval average is below 37.8% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event."

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $123.1K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Trump's RCP approval average be below 37.8 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $46.9K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $15.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 35.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 65.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $9.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 17.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 82.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $6.5K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.0 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $2.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.9 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $10.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 1.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 37.8 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $6.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?
- **Kalshi** (End: Oct 14, 2026): Vol $18.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

Volume$123.12K

Markets9

9 of 9

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KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is above 38.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 35.0¢No 65.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.4% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 17.5¢No 82.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.3% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 4.5¢No 95.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.1% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

KALSHI

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 3.5¢No 96.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

If Trump's RCP approval average is exactly 38.2% at exactly 1:00 PM ET on Oct 14, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" will be the sole resolution source for this event.

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Oct 14, 2026, 4:59 PM UTC

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Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

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Events (1)

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

Markets (9)

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

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Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be above 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.4 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.3 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.1 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

Will Trump's RCP approval average be exactly 38.2 on Oct 14, 2026?

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