Name: Bank of Russia decision in March?
End: 2026-03-20T00:00:00.000Z

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Bank of Russia decision in March? | PredictPedia

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3 markets tracked

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

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Single-Platform Markets(3)

Market	Platform	Price
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?	Poly	75%
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?	Poly	24%
Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?	Poly	3%

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, January 16, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Bank of Russia decision in March?
**Category:** Economy | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 20, 2026 (63 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their March 20, 2026 meeting with relevant data i

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s March meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its March 20, 2026 meeting as listed on t"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $857
* **Total Liquidity:** $18.8K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.05)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 20, 2026): Vol $310
  DATA: [Yes: 74.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 25.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 20, 2026): Vol $221
  DATA: [Yes: 23.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 76.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 20, 2026): Vol $327
  DATA: [Yes: 3.3% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.7% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Next Market Closes

62d 11h remaining

Mar 20, 2026 12:00 AM

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34¢

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Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

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Bank of Russia decision in March?

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Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?

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Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

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Bank of Russia decision in March?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?

Will the Bank of Russia increase the key rate after the March Meeting?

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