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French presidential election: who will advance?

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French presidential election: who will advance?

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13 markets tracked

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

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Single-Platform Markets(13)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	80%
Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	42%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	34%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	16%
Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	16%
Will Bruno Retailleau qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	14%
Will Dominique de Villepin qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	13%
Will Jordan Bardella qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	9%
Will Olivier Faure qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Élisabeth Borne qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	7%
Will Sébastien Lecornu qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?	Kalshi	5%

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About This Event

Apr 18, 2026 If X is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Friday, July 10, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** French presidential election: who will advance?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Apr 18, 2026

If X is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. This is determined at the time qualification is announced; subsequent withdrawals, disqualifications, or changes in eligibility do not affect whether the candidate qualified. If a candidate is announced

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Sébastien Lecornu is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets wil"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $0
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Sébastien Lecornu qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 4.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Olivier Faure qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 79.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 20.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 66.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Jordan Bardella qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 8.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 91.5% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will François Hollande qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 41.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 58.5% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will Élisabeth Borne qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 11. Will Dominique de Villepin qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 12. Will Bruno Retailleau qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 13. Will Bernard Cazeneuve qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?
- **Kalshi** (End: Apr 17, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

French presidential election: who will advance?

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Markets13

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KALSHI

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 79.5¢No 20.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

If Marine Le Pen is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will re

KALSHI

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 41.5¢No 58.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

If Édouard Philippe is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will

KALSHI

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.5¢No 66.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

If Jean-Luc Mélenchon is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets wi

KALSHI

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

If Raphaël Glucksmann is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets wi

KALSHI

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 15.5¢No 84.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

If Gabriel Attal is announced to qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: If a candidate wins the first round outright, and no runoff occurs, the market for that winning candidate will resolve Yes and all other markets will re

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/h2Dkfc" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="French presidential election: who will advance?"></iframe>

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French presidential election: who will advance?

French presidential election: who will advance?

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Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

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Events (1)

French presidential election: who will advance?

Markets (13)

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

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Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

French presidential election: who will advance?

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Marine Le Pen qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Édouard Philippe qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Raphaël Glucksmann qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

Will Gabriel Attal qualify for the runoff in the 2027 French presidential election?

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