Current Market Outlook

Kalshi traders currently price a Comey indictment reinstatement at 11% before 2027. That means the market sees this as a longshot. An 11% probability implies roughly 8-to-1 odds against the prosecution surviving appellate review. For context, that's lower than the typical success rate for government appeals in criminal cases, which hover around 60-70% at the circuit level.

The market closed early if the event occurs, meaning the 11% figure reflects real-time betting after the district court's November 24, 2025 dismissal.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

Three things explain this low probability.

First, the district court dismissal was likely based on substantive legal grounds, not procedural errors. Judge James Boasberg, who handled the case, has a reputation for careful legal reasoning. If he dismissed for prosecutorial misconduct or constitutional violations, appellate courts typically give deference to factual findings.

Second, the Comey case involves unprecedented legal territory. A former FBI director prosecuted for leaking classified information creates statutory interpretation questions that split courts. The D.C. Circuit, which would hear the appeal, leans conservative but has shown independence in high-profile cases.

Third, timing works against the prosecution. The appellate process normally takes 12-18 months. With the dismissal in late 2025, a circuit ruling before 2027 requires expedited briefing. The government would need to convince the D.C. Circuit to fast-track the appeal, which happens in maybe 20% of cases.

What Could Change These Odds

The biggest catalyst is the government's notice of appeal deadline, likely in December 2025. If DOJ files a notice, odds should jump to 25-30% as the case enters active litigation.

Oral argument scheduling matters. If the D.C. Circuit sets argument for mid-2026, that signals serious consideration and would push odds toward 40%. A denial of oral argument entirely would drop them below 5%.

The Supreme Court could also intervene. If the D.C. Circuit rules against reinstatement, DOJ could petition certiorari before January 2027. SCOTUS accepts about 1% of petitions, but high-profile national security cases get more attention.

The 2026 midterm elections create wildcard dynamics. A Republican-controlled Congress might pressure DOJ to drop the appeal entirely, which would send the market to 0%.