$87.05K
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$87.05K
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Before 2027 If Venezuela holds a presidential election before X 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Early close condition: This market will close and expire early if the event occurs. This market will close and expire early if the event occurs.
Prediction markets currently assign a 58% probability that Venezuela will hold a presidential election before June 1, 2027. This price, trading exclusively on Kalshi with approximately $87,000 in total volume, indicates the market views an election within this timeframe as slightly more likely than not, but remains highly uncertain. The thin liquidity across related date markets suggests this is a speculative geopolitical bet rather than a heavily traded consensus.
The primary factor supporting the "Yes" case is the 2024 Barbados Agreement between the government and opposition, which included a commitment to hold elections in the second half of 2024. While that deadline passed without a vote, the ongoing diplomatic framework and international pressure, particularly from the United States regarding sanctions relief, maintain a baseline expectation for an election before 2027. Conversely, the significant probability priced for "No" reflects the entrenched political reality under Nicolás Maduro. The government has repeatedly delayed and manipulated electoral processes, most recently by disqualifying the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, and her designated substitute. This pattern of institutional control makes any concession on a legitimate presidential election a profound risk to the ruling party's hold on power.
The immediate catalyst is the official electoral schedule set by the National Electoral Council (CNE). A formal announcement of a 2025 or 2026 date would cause the "Yes" probability to surge. Conversely, further disqualifications of opposition figures, a breakdown of negotiation talks, or the imposition of new, more restrictive electoral conditions would drive the "No" odds higher. The U.S. administration's policy following the 2024 U.S. election is also critical. A decisive reimposition or escalation of oil and financial sanctions in 2025 could pressure the regime, while a lapse in international coordination could enable further delay. Market odds will remain volatile around these political milestones.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market topic concerns the timing of Venezuela's next presidential election, specifically whether it will occur before January 1, 2027. The question is central to the nation's ongoing political crisis, which has been characterized by disputed legitimacy, international sanctions, and a severe socioeconomic collapse. The current presidential term of Nicolás Maduro, who claimed victory in the 2018 election widely condemned as neither free nor fair, is constitutionally set to end in January 2025. However, the actual scheduling of a new election is a subject of intense domestic negotiation and international pressure, making the date a critical uncertainty for Venezuela's future. Recent diplomatic efforts, notably the Barbados Agreement signed in October 2023 between the government and the opposition Unitary Platform, aimed to establish a roadmap for competitive elections in 2024, but its implementation has stalled. Observers are monitoring whether Maduro's government will permit a credible electoral process or seek to further delay voting, a decision with profound implications for the potential lifting of U.S. oil sanctions and the country's re-integration into the international community. The market resolves to 'Yes' if an election is held before the 2027 threshold, reflecting the high-stakes bet on whether Venezuela's political deadlock will be broken within the coming years.
Venezuela's electoral timeline has been a source of contention since the death of Hugo Chávez in 2013. Nicolás Maduro narrowly won a special election that year, and his first full term began in 2014. The opposition won a legislative supermajority in the 2015 National Assembly elections, but the government-stacked Supreme Tribunal of Justice (TSJ) subsequently stripped the assembly of its powers, escalating the conflict. The next pivotal moment was the 2018 presidential election, which major opposition parties boycotted due to a lack of guarantees. Maduro claimed victory amid low turnout and widespread allegations of fraud, leading over 50 countries, including the U.S. and most of Latin America, to recognize National Assembly President Juan Guaidó as interim president in 2019. This created a parallel government crisis. The 2020 parliamentary elections were also boycotted by the main opposition, resulting in a legislature dominated by Maduro's allies. The current push for elections stems from the 2021 regional and local elections, where the opposition participated for the first time since 2017, and subsequent negotiations in Mexico City and Barbados. These talks have established a pattern where the government makes commitments under international pressure, only to later create new obstacles, such as disqualifying popular candidates, thereby controlling the electoral environment.
The timing and credibility of Venezuela's next presidential election will determine the country's trajectory out of a decade-long crisis that has driven over 7.7 million people to emigrate and collapsed the economy. A free and fair election could unlock the partial lifting of U.S. and international sanctions, allowing the state oil company PDVSA to regain access to global markets and finance, potentially stabilizing the economy and slowing hyperinflation. It could also pave the way for the return of international financial institutions and the reconstruction of decimated public services. Conversely, another delayed or illegitimate election would likely trigger a re-tightening of sanctions, deepening the humanitarian emergency and potentially sparking renewed waves of migration that affect the entire Western Hemisphere. Politically, a credible vote is seen as the only non-violent path to resolving the legitimacy crisis that has left Venezuela isolated. For the Venezuelan people, it represents a chance to choose their leadership after years of de facto one-party rule, with direct consequences for human rights, freedom of expression, and access to basic goods.
As of mid-2024, the electoral process is in a state of suspended animation. The government has unilaterally set a presidential election date for July 28, 2024. However, the opposition's chosen candidate, María Corina Machado, remains officially disqualified, and key aspects of the Barbados Agreement, such as inviting credible international observers, are unmet. In response, the United States did not renew its broad oil sanctions license in April 2024, reinstating restrictions but granting specific companies 45-day wind-down periods. The government has promoted a lesser-known opposition figure, Edmundo González Urrutia, as a stand-in candidate, but the opposition coalition maintains that Machado is their legitimate nominee. Negotiations between the government and opposition are sporadic, with no major breakthrough reported. The focus is on whether Machado's disqualification will be lifted or if the opposition will proceed with an alternative under conditions they currently deem unacceptable.
The government set the date for July 28, 2024, without agreement from the opposition on the electoral conditions outlined in the Barbados Agreement. The main controversy is the maintained disqualification of the leading opposition candidate, María Corina Machado, which the opposition and international observers say prevents a competitive election.
Signed in October 2023, it was a deal between the Maduro government and the Unitary Platform opposition to create a roadmap for the 2024 presidential election. It included commitments to allow international observers, update the voter registry, and permit all candidates to appeal disqualifications. Its incomplete implementation is the core of the current dispute.
María Corina Machado is the primary opposition candidate, having won an unofficial primary in October 2023 with over 92% of the vote. However, she is currently disqualified by the government from holding public office, a move criticized by the U.S., EU, and others as undemocratic.
The U.S. conditioned the temporary easing of key oil sanctions in October 2023 on Maduro's government fulfilling its Barbados Agreement commitments for a competitive election. As the government failed to meet these conditions, the U.S. did not renew the broad sanctions relief in April 2024, reinstating restrictions to pressure the regime.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
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5 markets tracked
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| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 57% |
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jan 1, 2027? | Kalshi | 37% |
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Sep 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 20% |
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Jun 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 10% |
Will Venezuela hold a presidential election before Apr 1, 2026? | Kalshi | 4% |
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