$32.00
1
2
2 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will the Republican Party win the MN-04 House seat? | Poly | 91% |
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-04 House seat? | Poly | 8% |
$32.00
1
2
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed af
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on the outcome of Minnesota's 4th Congressional District House election in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on which political party wins this specific U.S. House seat, with the winner determined by the candidate's ballot-listed party affiliation as called by major media outlets and election authorities. Minnesota's 4th District covers most of Ramsey County, including the state capital of St. Paul, along with parts of Washington County. The district has been represented exclusively by Democrats since 1949, making it one of the most consistently Democratic districts in the nation. The 2026 election will occur on November 4, 2026, as part of nationwide midterm elections where all 435 House seats are contested. Interest in this market stems from whether this district will maintain its historic Democratic alignment or potentially shift in a politically volatile environment. The outcome serves as a barometer for Democratic strength in urban centers and could influence national political strategies. Political observers monitor this district for any signs of changing demographics or voter sentiment that might break its 75-year Democratic streak.
Minnesota's 4th Congressional District has elected only Democratic representatives since 1949, when Eugene McCarthy won the seat. This 75-year Democratic streak represents the longest continuous run for either party in any Minnesota congressional district. The district's boundaries have changed multiple times through redistricting, but its core has consistently included St. Paul and surrounding suburbs. The current district configuration dates from the 2022 redistricting cycle following the 2020 census, when it was drawn as Minnesota's most Democratic-leaning district with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+14. Before Betty McCollum's tenure beginning in 2001, the district was represented by Bruce Vento for 24 years from 1977 to 2000. Vento's sudden death in 2000 triggered a special election that McCollum won, becoming the first Democratic woman elected to Congress from Minnesota. The district has never been seriously contested in recent decades, with Democratic candidates typically winning by margins of 20 percentage points or more. The closest recent election occurred in 2010, when McCollum won by 16 points during the Republican wave election that gave the GOP control of the House.
The MN-04 election matters because it tests whether one of America's most reliably Democratic districts remains immune to national political shifts. A Democratic loss here would signal profound changes in urban and suburban political coalitions, potentially indicating broader realignments affecting similar districts nationwide. The district's diverse population, including significant immigrant communities from Southeast Asia and East Africa, makes it a laboratory for how demographic changes interact with long-standing political patterns. For national parties, the outcome influences resource allocation decisions, as both Democrats and Republicans must decide whether to defend or challenge historically safe seats. A competitive race would redirect millions in campaign spending that would otherwise go to swing districts, affecting the balance of power in Congress. The election also matters for policy representation, as the district's constituents have consistently supported progressive policies on healthcare, education, and environmental protection through their Democratic representatives.
As of early 2025, Betty McCollum has not announced whether she will seek re-election in 2026. At age 70, her decision will likely come in late 2025 or early 2026, following the pattern of previous election cycles. No declared candidates have emerged from either party, though political operatives in both parties are reportedly discussing potential contenders. The Republican Party of Minnesota has indicated it plans to contest all congressional districts in 2026 but has not specified what resources it will dedicate to MN-04. Local Democratic organizations are preparing for either a McCollum re-election campaign or an open primary, with several state legislators reportedly considering runs if the seat becomes open.
The district includes all of St. Paul, the state capital and Minnesota's second-largest city. It also covers surrounding suburbs including Maplewood, Woodbury, North St. Paul, Oakdale, and parts of Washington County. The district encompasses most of Ramsey County.
Yes, but not since 1948. The last Republican to represent the district was Edward Devitt, who served one term from 1947 to 1949. Republicans held the seat for several periods in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, but Democrats have controlled it continuously since Eugene McCarthy's election in 1948.
McCollum serves on the House Appropriations Committee, where she is the ranking member of the Defense Subcommittee. She also sits on the Interior-Environment Subcommittee and the Labor-HHS-Education Subcommittee. These positions give her influence over federal spending in key policy areas.
MN-04 is more diverse than the Minnesota average, with approximately 35% non-white population according to 2020 census data. It has significant Hmong, Somali, and Latino communities. The district is highly educated, with over 40% of adults holding bachelor's degrees, and urban, with most residents living in St. Paul or its immediate suburbs.
The filing deadline will likely be in early June 2026, based on Minnesota's election calendar. In 2024, the deadline was June 4. Candidates must file with the Minnesota Secretary of State's office and pay a $400 filing fee or submit a petition with signatures.
The 2010 midterm election was the closest recent contest, when Betty McCollum defeated Republican Teresa Collett 56% to 40%. This occurred during a strong Republican year nationally when the GOP gained 63 House seats. Every other election since 2002 has been decided by at least 20 percentage points.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
No related news found
Add this market to your website
<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/h7BWBe" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="MN-04 House Election Winner"></iframe>