Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

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$4.34K

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Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Vol

$4.34K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

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Price Spread

0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $4.34K

100%

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10 markets tracked

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(10)

Market	Platform	Price
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	21%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	20%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	14%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Ofer Winter is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Gadi Eisenkot is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benny Gantz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	6%
Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?	Kalshi	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

21%

Top Probability

$4.34K

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About This Event

Before Oct 28, 2030 If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that X is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Oct 28, 2030

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that X is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from The Times of Israel qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications, from before Issuance, do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources, e.

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The Times "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $4.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Ofer Winter is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $1.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 21.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 79.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $2.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 13.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 86.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Itamar Ben-Gvir is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $116
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Gadi Eisenkot is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benjamin Netanyahu is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 2.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 97.5% (0.0%)]

### 9. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Benny Gantz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $4
  DATA: [Yes: 6.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 94.0% (0.0%)]

### 10. Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?
- **Kalshi** (End: Nov 4, 2030): Vol $704
  DATA: [Yes: 19.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 80.5% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Volume$4.34K

Markets10

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KALSHI

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 21.0¢No 79.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The T

KALSHI

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 19.5¢No 80.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The

KALSHI

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 13.5¢No 86.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The Times

KALSHI

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The Times

KALSHI

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 6.0¢No 94.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

If it is reported by The Times of Israel after Issuance and before Oct 28, 2030 that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: Only reporting from The Time

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Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

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Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

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Events (1)

Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Markets (10)

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

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Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Who will be Israeli defense minister after the election?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Naftali Bennett is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Avigdor Lieberman is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Israel Katz is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yair Golan is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

Will it be reported by The Times of Israel that Yoav Gallant is the first Minister of Defense to take office in the first new Israeli government formed after the next Knesset election before Oct 28, 2030?

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