This prediction market focuses on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Ink, a new cryptocurrency token, specifically whether its FDV will exceed a predetermined threshold one day after its public launch. The market resolves based on the token's valuation at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the calendar day following its official launch, defined as when the token becomes actively and publicly transferable and tradable on exchanges. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available at that time. This type of market is significant in the crypto space as it allows participants to speculate on the immediate market reception and perceived value of a new digital asset, providing a real-time gauge of investor sentiment and confidence in the project's fundamentals. Ink, developed by the team behind Inkochain.com, is entering a crowded market of layer-1 and layer-2 blockchain solutions. Interest in this market stems from the broader trend of evaluating new crypto launches through their initial FDV, a metric that represents the total value of all tokens in existence at current market prices, which has become a critical indicator for assessing potential dilution and long-term value accrual for early investors and community members. Recent cycles have seen heightened scrutiny on FDV at launch, with many projects facing sell pressure if their valuation is perceived as excessive relative to their current utility and adoption.

Historical Context

The concept of evaluating cryptocurrency projects by their fully diluted valuation at launch gained prominence during the 2021 bull market, when a surge of new tokens entered the market. Many projects, particularly in decentralized finance and gaming, launched with extremely high FDVs based on future promises rather than current revenue or user adoption. This often led to significant underperformance post-launch, as early investors and teams with unlocked tokens sold into the inflated valuation. A notable precedent is the launch of the APT token for the Aptos blockchain in October 2022. It debuted with an FDV exceeding $13 billion despite minimal ecosystem activity, a valuation that many analysts considered unsustainable. Its price declined substantially in the following months. Similarly, the SUI network launch in May 2023 faced criticism for its high initial FDV relative to its locked token supply and circulating float. These historical examples have made market participants more cautious, leading to prediction markets like this one that specifically target the FDV metric as a barometer for whether a project is launching at a reasonable valuation or is potentially overhyped. The performance of recent layer-1 launches, such as Berachain and Monad, in their initial phases will also provide immediate context for Ink's market reception.

Frequently Asked Questions