Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets currently assign a 55% probability to the Nationalist People's Coalition (NPC) winning the most seats in the 2028 Philippine Senate election. This price, found exclusively on Kalshi, indicates the market views an NPC plurality as the most likely outcome, but only slightly more probable than not. The alternative "Uncertain" contract trades at 45%, reflecting a nearly even split in market sentiment. It is critical to note that liquidity is extremely thin, with minimal trading volume, meaning these initial odds are highly tentative and susceptible to significant change as more capital enters the market.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The current pricing reflects the NPC's established position as a major political machinery in the Philippines, historically adept at forging alliances and securing bloc votes. Its leadership under President Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr.'s key ally, businessman Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco Jr. until his passing, has left a legacy of a deep network. The party's strength in the House of Representatives and its strategic partnerships within the ruling coalition provide a foundational advantage for Senate slate-building. Furthermore, the Philippine Senate's electoral system of a nationwide at-large vote rewards well-funded, nationally organized parties that can field a cohesive slate of recognizable candidates, a traditional NPC strength.

What Could Change These Odds

The 2028 odds will be highly volatile and responsive to the political realignments expected after the 2025 midterm elections, which will serve as a critical precursor. A key risk to the NPC's position is the potential fragmentation of the current "UniTeam" alliance between Marcos and Vice President Sara Duterte. Should Duterte's Hugpong ng Pagbabago or other major blocs like the PDP-Laban decide to field a competing, full slate in 2028, it could split the pro-administration vote and create an opening for a resurgent opposition coalition. The eventual composition of the 12 seats up for election, which are last contested in 2022, will also be a major factor, as some incumbents may be more vulnerable than others. Market odds will solidify as candidate slates are finalized closer to 2028.