Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIElections

Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

Total Volume

$32.87K

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Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

Vol

$32.87K

Events

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Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $32.87K

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0.0%avg

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Volume DistributionTotal: $32.87K

100%

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7 markets tracked

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

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Single-Platform Markets(7)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	88%
Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	86%
Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	73%
Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	50%
Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	33%
Will Remain receive at least 80% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	17%
Will Remain receive at least 85% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?	Kalshi	7%

AI Analysis

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88%

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$32.87K

Volume

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About This Event

On Oct 19, 2026 If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least X in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1, Alberta should remain a province of Canada, on Question 10 of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum, as reported in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results. Preliminary results do not qual

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?
**Category:** Elections | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** On Oct 19, 2026

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least X in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1, Alberta should remain a province of Canada, on Question 10 of Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum, as reported in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results. Preliminary results do not qual

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 77% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $32.9K
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 33.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 67.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Remain receive at least 85% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 6.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 93.5% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Remain receive at least 80% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $715
  DATA: [Yes: 16.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 83.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 50.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $7.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 73.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 27.0% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $7.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 86.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 14.0% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 19, 2027): Vol $6.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 88.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 12.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

Tap text to select all

Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIElections

Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

Volume$32.87K

Markets7

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KALSHI

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 88.0¢No 12.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 60% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert

KALSHI

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 86.0¢No 14.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 65% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert

KALSHI

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 73.0¢No 27.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 70% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert

KALSHI

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 49.5¢No 50.5¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 75% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert

KALSHI

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 33.0¢No 67.0¢

KALSHIPolitics

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

If the Remain option’s share of valid votes on Question 10 in Elections Alberta’s first official final referendum results is at least 77% in the October 19, 2026 Alberta referendum, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: The value is the percentage of valid votes cast for Option 1 (Albert

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/hH8kOi" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?"></iframe>

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Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

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Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

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Events (1)

Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

Markets (7)

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

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Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

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Alberta referendum: Remain vote share?

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 60% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 65% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 70% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 75% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

Will Remain receive at least 77% of valid votes in Alberta’s October 19, 2026 referendum?

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