Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETPolitics

Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

Name: Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?
End: 2026-10-25T23:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$18.51K

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Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?

Vol

$18.51K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $18.51K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $18.51K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

6 markets tracked

Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(6)

Market	Platform	Price
Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	41%
Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	36%
Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	16%
Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	15%
Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	4%
Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	Poly	3%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

41%

Top Probability

$18.51K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election. Votes will be c

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Serbia Election: United Serbia Vote Share?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 25, 2026 (14 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the election.

Votes will be c

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Parliamentary elections to elect the 250 members of the National Assembly of Serbia are scheduled to take place on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of the valid vote won by the electoral list “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary "

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $18.5K
* **Total Liquidity:** $34.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.53)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will US win less than 35% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $1.8K
  DATA: [Yes: 3.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 96.8% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will US win 35-40% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will US win 40-45% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $4.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 41.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 59.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will US win 45-50% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 36.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 64.0% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will US win 50-55% of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.1K
  DATA: [Yes: 15.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will US win 55% or more of the vote in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 25, 2026): Vol $3.6K
  DATA: [Yes: 4.2% (0.0%)] | [No: 95.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETPolitics