Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$6.87M
1
8
Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?
$6.87M
1
8
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Opensea's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Opensea doesn't launch a token by December
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
Both providers describe contracts tied to Opensea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) one day after a token launch, but the resolution wording differs. Kalshi says the market resolves to Yes if Opensea's FDV, "as displayed on CoinGecko," is above the threshold "at exactly 10:00 AM on 1 day after launch," and that the FDV must be "the value shown in the 'FDV' field on the coin's main CoinGecko page" [1]. Its listed contract date is January 1, 2027, but the market end date is January 8, 2027 at 05:00 UTC, and the source excerpt does not state a time zone for the 10:00 AM measurement [1].
Polymarket resolves using "the most liquid price source available," and defines "1 day after launch" as "4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch" [2]. It also requires that the token be "actively, publicly transferable and tradable" for a launch to count [2]. Its listed end time is January 1, 2027 at 05:00 UTC [2].
Because the measurement source, time, and launch conditions differ, the two platforms' contracts are not interchangeable.
Reading the snapshot
The data was observed at 03:00:06 UTC on October 13, 2026, and retrieved at 04:07:16 UTC the same day. These are saved values, not live quotes, and they are not executable prices. Both providers' events were marked active in the saved record.
Kalshi's six saved thresholds run from a listed $1999999999.99 threshold with a Yes price of 0.305, down to a $14999999999.99 threshold at 0.035 [1]. Polymarket's eight saved markets run from a $100M threshold at 0.145 down to a $5B threshold at 0.0335 [2]. Polymarket also lists two markets titled "$100M" with Yes prices of 0.145 and 0.1405. The saved record does not explain this, so the reader should treat it as a data-quality question rather than resolve it.
Each provider's sample is complete for its saved event, with no partial sampling flagged. Within each provider, higher thresholds carry lower Yes prices, which is consistent with the contracts' structure. The lack of a common threshold across platforms means the prices cannot be compared directly, and they should not be averaged or ranked together.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold positions, or whether prices reflect any news. Trading volume is not included in this summary and would not indicate liquidity. The snapshot may not reflect current prices, and the saved sample does not establish that the providers list every possible outcome. The actual FDV at measurement time is not supplied, so no resolution outcome can be inferred.
References
- Kalshi: What will Opensea FDV be at 1 day after launch?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
- Polymarket: Opensea FDV above ___ one day after launch?. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T03:00:06.088Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 13, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers two prediction-market contracts that ask whether OpenSea's fully diluted valuation (FDV) will exceed a set threshold one day after a token launch. One set is listed on Kalshi [1] and the other on Polymarket [2]. Each contract uses a different threshold structure, so the two are separate markets rather than one shared field of outcomes. The Kalshi contract asks whether OpenSea's FDV, as displayed on CoinGecko, will be above a stated amount at exactly 10:00 AM on the day one day after launch. The source states that the figure must be the value shown in the FDV field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, and that it may not be calculated from other metrics [1]. If no data is available at that time, the last FDV value shown before that time on that date is used. If the coin is delisted from CoinGecko before the measurement date, the source describes using the last record, but the excerpt is cut off at that point [1]. The Polymarket contract resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of OpenSea's token is greater than the value in the title one day after launch, and to No otherwise [2]. The source says the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. It defines one day after launch as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch, and it names the most liquid price source available as the resolution source [2]. The excerpt also refers to a case in which OpenSea does not launch a token by a December date, but the text is truncated, so the consequence of that case cannot be stated from this evidence [2].
Why It Matters
The contract measures a single valuation figure at a specified time after a possible token launch. On the Kalshi version, that figure is the FDV shown on CoinGecko's main coin page at a fixed clock time [1]. On the Polymarket version, it is the token's fully diluted valuation measured one day after launch, using the most liquid available price source [2]. Because the thresholds and measurement rules differ between the two platforms, a contract on one platform should be read against its own rules rather than compared directly with the other. The measurement rules matter for how the contract resolves. Kalshi ties resolution to a named data field and sets out fallback handling for missing data [1]. Polymarket ties resolution to a launch definition and a time zone-specific measurement point [2]. Readers should check the full rules on each platform before relying on any reading of the contract.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-13 at 03:00 UTC. It contains listings from Kalshi and Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the Kalshi contract use to measure FDV?
The Kalshi rules say the FDV must be the value in the FDV field on the coin's main CoinGecko page, not calculated from other metrics [1].
What happens if CoinGecko has no data at the measurement time on Kalshi?
The rules say the last FDV value shown before that time on the date will be used [1].
How does Polymarket define one day after launch?
Polymarket defines it as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch [2].
What counts as a launch for the Polymarket contract?
The rules say the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch [2].
Which price source does Polymarket use for resolution?
The resolution source is described as the most liquid price source available [2].
Has OpenSea launched a token?
The supplied sources describe launch conditions for these contracts but do not establish whether a launch has occurred. Readers should treat the status of any launch as unconfirmed by this evidence [1][2].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Saved price pairs
0
No exact saved pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
