Market snapshot: Oct 12, 2026, 3:00 AM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupKALSHI

Event GroupKALSHIPolitics

Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Total Volume

$254.86

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Markets

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Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Vol

$254.86

Events

Markets

Kalshi

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Polymarket

markets · $0.00

Kalshi

markets · $254.86

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $254.86

100%

Kalshi leads

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4 markets tracked

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(4)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?	Kalshi	40%
Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?	Kalshi	16%
Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?	Kalshi	13%
Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?	Kalshi	11%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

40%

Top Probability

$254.86

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Before Jan 2029 If Narendra Modi leaves, or announces he will leave, as Prime Minister of India before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. X statement that Narendra Modi will not lead the Bharatiya Janata Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election. X formal resignation after which he contin

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Monday, October 12, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?
**Category:** Politics | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** N/A (Unknown)
**Time Pressure:** Unknown

**Description:** Before Jan 2029

If Narendra Modi leaves, or announces he will leave, as Prime Minister of India before X 1, Y then the market resolves to Yes. This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. X statement that Narendra Modi will not lead the Bharatiya Janata Party into the next general election does not count unless it also says he will leave office before that election. X formal resignation after which he contin

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date.

A statement that"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $255
* **Total Liquidity:** $0
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.00)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2029): Vol $13
  DATA: [Yes: 39.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 60.5% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2028): Vol $39
  DATA: [Yes: 16.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 84.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jan 8, 2028): Vol $0
  DATA: [Yes: 12.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 87.5% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?
- **Kalshi** (End: Jul 8, 2027): Vol $203
  DATA: [Yes: 11.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 89.0% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

KALSHIPolitics

Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Volume$254.86

Markets4

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KALSHI

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 39.5¢No 60.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 16.0¢No 84.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 12.5¢No 87.5¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

KALSHI

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

KALSHI

KKalshi

Yes 11.0¢No 89.0¢

KALSHIWorld

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

If Narendra Modi leaves (or announces he will leave) as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Secondary rules: This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. A statement that

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20¢

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<iframe src="https://predictpedia.com/embed/hLW1QN" width="400" height="160" frameborder="0" style="border-radius: 8px; max-width: 100%;" title="Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?"></iframe>

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Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

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Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

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Events (1)

Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Markets (4)

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

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Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

Narendra Modi announces departure as Prime Minister of India?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2029?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jan 1, 2028?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

Will Narendra Modi announce their departure as Prime Minister of India before Jul 1, 2027?

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