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$12.83K
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On Feb 8, 2026 If X finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 Thailand House of Representatives election in Thailand according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes. In case of an exact tie among multiple parties as certified by the election authority, the markets shall resolve to $1/, number of tied entities, rounded down. The ranking will be determined by the party list order as specified by the electoral authority's final seat allocation. This market will close and expire early i
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
This prediction market focuses on which political party will secure second place in Thailand's 2026 House of Representatives election, scheduled for February 8, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official party-list seat allocation as certified by Thailand's Election Commission. The market resolves based on the final ranking of parties by total seats won, with specific rules for handling ties. Thailand's parliamentary elections determine the composition of the 500-member House of Representatives, which then works with the appointed Senate to select the Prime Minister. The 2026 election follows a period of significant political realignment after the 2023 election, which produced a fragmented parliament and required complex coalition-building. Interest in the second-place finisher stems from its role as the primary opposition force and its potential influence in a coalition government if the leading party fails to secure a majority. The position often indicates which party represents the strongest alternative to the ruling bloc and can signal shifting voter preferences across Thailand's regions. Analysts monitor pre-election polls, by-election results, and party mergers to gauge which organizations might challenge for this position.
Thailand's modern political history is characterized by cycles of elected governments and military coups, with 13 successful coups since the end of absolute monarchy in 1932. The 1997 constitution established the current mixed-member apportionment system for the House of Representatives, with 400 constituency seats and 100 party-list seats. The 2001 election brought Thaksin Shinawatra's Thai Rak Thai party to power, beginning a prolonged political conflict between his populist movement and the country's traditional elite, often called the 'red shirt' versus 'yellow shirt' divide. This conflict led to military coups in 2006 and 2014. The 2019 election, the first after the 2014 coup, resulted in a coalition government led by Palang Pracharath, with Pheu Thai finishing second. The 2023 election marked a significant shift, with the progressive Move Forward Party winning the most seats and the popular vote, challenging the established political order. However, Move Forward was blocked from forming a government by the military-appointed Senate, leading to a coalition government involving Pheu Thai and former rivals. This outcome set the stage for the 2026 contest, where parties are maneuvering to either consolidate or disrupt the new status quo.
The party that finishes second in the 2026 election will likely lead the parliamentary opposition, shaping legislative debates and holding the government accountable. In Thailand's frequently fragmented parliaments, the second-largest party often becomes a kingmaker in coalition negotiations, giving it influence beyond its seat count. The identity of this party signals which political ideology represents the primary alternative to the governing bloc, influencing policy direction on issues from economic reform to military budgets. For international observers and investors, the result provides insight into Thailand's political stability and potential for policy continuity. A strong showing by a reformist party could indicate pressure for institutional changes, while a conservative second-place finish might suggest a reconsolidation of traditional power structures. The outcome also affects Thailand's foreign policy alignment, particularly regarding relations with China, the United States, and neighboring Southeast Asian nations.
As of late 2024, Thailand is governed by a coalition led by Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin of the Pheu Thai Party, which includes parties from the former pro-military bloc. The Move Forward Party leads the opposition but faces legal challenges, including a Constitutional Court case that could result in its dissolution. Several smaller parties are positioning themselves for the 2026 election, with speculation about potential mergers or new alliances. The Election Commission has begun preparations for the 2026 poll, including updating voter registries. Political campaigning has intensified, with parties testing messages in local elections and through social media.
Thailand uses a mixed-member apportionment system. Voters cast two ballots: one for a constituency representative (400 seats) and one for a party list (100 seats). The party-list seats are allocated using a complex formula based on each party's nationwide vote share, designed to achieve proportional representation.
According to this market's rules, if multiple parties have an identical certified seat count for second place, the resolution value will be $1 divided by the number of tied parties, rounded down. The official ranking from the Election Commission's final seat allocation document will be used to determine placement.
The Election Commission of Thailand typically certifies election results within 60 days of the polling date. For a February 8, 2026 election, certified results would likely be announced by early April 2026, though preliminary results are usually available within days of voting.
Yes. The Constitutional Court is considering a case that could dissolve Move Forward for allegedly attempting to overthrow the constitutional monarchy. The court dissolved Move Forward's predecessor, the Future Forward Party, in 2020. If dissolved, its MPs might join a new party or sit as independents.
The 250-member Senate, appointed by the military, jointly votes with the House of Representatives to select the Prime Minister. This gives the Senate decisive influence, as seen in 2023 when it blocked Move Forward's candidate. The Senate's term ends in 2024, but its replacement mechanism under the current constitution remains uncertain.
Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.
7 markets tracked
No data available
| Market | Platform | Price |
|---|---|---|
Will People's Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 98% |
Will Bhumjaithai Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will Pheu Thai Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 2% |
Will United Thai Nation Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Palang Pracharath Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Kla Tham Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 1% |
Will Democrat Party finish 2nd in Thailand? | Kalshi | 1% |
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