Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

GroupPOLYMARKET

Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Name: Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
End: 2026-10-26T03:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$440.29K

Events

Markets

Trade on Polymarket

Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory

Vol

$440.29K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $440.29K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $440.29K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

8 markets tracked

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(8)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Poly	49%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Poly	27%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Poly	15%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Poly	10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	Poly	2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Poly	1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Poly	0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

49%

Top Probability

$440.29K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidat

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

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## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** Brazil Presidential Election Second Round: Margin of Victory
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Oct 26, 2026 (15 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Medium

**Description:** The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidat

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"The second round of the presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 25, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.

For the purpose of this market, the “marg"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $440.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $661.2K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.67)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $59.7K
  DATA: [Yes: 2.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.0% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $81.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 14.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 85.4% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $107.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 49.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 51.0% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $95.0K
  DATA: [Yes: 26.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 73.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $34.2K
  DATA: [Yes: 9.5% (0.0%)] | [No: 90.5% (0.0%)]

### 6. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $24.4K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.9% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.2% (0.0%)]

### 7. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $20.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.4% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.6% (0.0%)]

### 8. Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 12%?
- **Polymarket** (End: Oct 26, 2026): Vol $18.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

POLYMARKETWorld