OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PM $487.2K
1
7
OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
PM $487.2K
1
7
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $487.2K
Reported volume · provider units
7
Saved contracts
0
Reviewed equivalent pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 15, 2026, 9:00 PM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This saved analysis is awaiting a background update. Its prices and claims may be outdated; compare them with the dated market data above.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-13T00:00:05.902Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks about OpenAI's market capitalization at the close of its first trading day, if an initial public offering happens. The source defines market cap as "the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day" [1]. It also sets a fallback: "If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026"" [1].
The event contains seven markets. One is a yes or no question about whether OpenAI does not IPO by the end of 2026. The other six ask whether the first-day closing market cap falls in specific ranges, such as "less than $500B" or "$1.5T or greater" [1]. Each market is a separate yes or no contract, so the markets are not alternative answers that must add up to one.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-13T00:00:05.902Z, and the application retrieved the source at 2026-10-13T00:38:13.308Z [1]. These are snapshots from that moment, not current or executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities.
On the observed snapshot, the "No IPO by December 31, 2026" contract priced its Yes side at 0.951 and its No side at 0.049 [1]. The market cap contracts priced their Yes sides between 0.003 and 0.0105 [1]. Taken at face value, the snapshot reflects a much higher price for the no-IPO outcome than for any single market cap range.
All seven markets from this provider event are included, and the source reports no partial sample for this event [1]. The source also notes that this "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Only one platform appears here, so no cross-platform comparison is made. Volume is not reported in the evidence, and the prices do not indicate how many traders hold a view.
What remains uncertain
The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to the December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline stated in the rules [1]. That date is a contract closing time, not an announced IPO date, and the evidence contains no confirmed IPO schedule.
The excerpt ends mid-sentence at "If the relevant value falls exactly b", so the rule for values that land exactly on a boundary is not visible in the supplied text [1]. The evidence also does not explain why prices are where they are. Readers should check the full rules and the live market before drawing conclusions.
References
- Polymarket: OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap. Provider data observed 2026-10-13T00:00:05.902Z.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-12T20:51:18.681Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This event asks how OpenAI's market capitalization will compare with several value ranges at the close of its first trading day. The rules state that the market "will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading" [1]. Market capitalization is defined as "the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day" [1].
The rules also set a fallback: "If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to 'No IPO by December 31, 2026'" [1]. The listed end time is 2027-01-01T04:59:00.000Z, which corresponds to that Eastern deadline. That end time is a contract closing time, not an announced IPO date. The evidence contains no IPO schedule.
Reading the snapshot
The provider observed these prices at 2026-10-12T20:51:18.681Z, and this system retrieved them at 2026-10-12T23:23:08.422Z [1]. These are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, and the evidence does not show their current values.
Seven contracts are included. The "not IPO by December 31, 2026" contract priced Yes at 0.9515 and No at 0.0485. The market cap contracts priced as follows (Yes prices):
- Market cap of $1.5T or greater at close: 0.0115
- Between $1T and $1.25T: 0.0035
- Between $1.25T and $1.5T: 0.003
- Between $750B and $1T: 0.0045
- Between $500B and $750B: 0.004
- Less than $500B: 0.004
Each contract is a separate yes or no question, so these prices should not be summed or averaged into a single view. The bins use different wording, so compare them only within this event.
The sample includes all seven saved markets, and the sample is not partial. The provider's ranking rule orders markets by Yes price, so the list order reflects that rule and not any ranking of likelihood across outcomes.
What remains uncertain
The evidence does not explain why prices are where they are, how many traders hold each view, or how much liquidity sits behind them. Volume is not used here as a measure of liquidity.
The sample warning states that the provider's listing "does not establish that the providers list every possible real-world outcome" [1]. Price differences between contracts are not an arbitrage signal on their own.
Finally, the snapshot describes October 12, 2026 observations only. Whether these prices have changed since, or whether an IPO will occur, cannot be determined from this evidence.
References
- Polymarket: OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap. Provider data observed 2026-10-12T20:51:18.681Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 12, 2026 UTCThis saved content is awaiting a background update. It may contain outdated claims; use the dated market data and provider rules for the latest available information.
Overview
This PredictPedia market concerns OpenAI's market capitalization on its first day of trading, if it goes public. The contract states that it will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on that first trading day [1]. Market capitalization is defined in the contract as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day [1]. The contract therefore measures a value tied to a public listing, not a private valuation. The contract also covers the case where no listing happens. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" [1]. The provider's listed end time for the event is 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, which corresponds to that deadline [1]. This end time is a contract closing time and does not indicate that any IPO has been announced or scheduled. The event is organized as a set of threshold markets. One asks whether OpenAI will not IPO by the deadline. The others ask whether the first-day closing market capitalization will fall within specified ranges, including amounts at or above $1.5 trillion, between $1.25 trillion and $1.5 trillion, between $1 trillion and $1.25 trillion, between $750 billion and $1 trillion, between $500 billion and $750 billion, and below $500 billion [1]. Each threshold is a separate yes or no contract within the same event. Because the ranges are defined by the contract wording, a price on one threshold should be read only against that threshold's own rules.
Historical Context
OpenAI's release of ChatGPT in November 2022 has been credited with catalyzing the AI boom [2]. In March 2026, OpenAI closed a funding round with a post-money valuation of US$852 billion [2]. A post-money valuation from a private funding round is a different measure from the public market capitalization that this contract uses [1]. A separate listing provides a point of comparison for the size of recent large offerings. The initial public offering of SpaceX occurred on June 12, 2026, and was described as the largest ever IPO, at a valuation of US$1.77 trillion. On its first trading day, the company reached a market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion [3]. This event is a different company and does not determine how OpenAI's contract will resolve.
Why It Matters
The contract measures a specific public-market figure: the closing market value of OpenAI's shares on the first trading day, calculated from shares outstanding and the closing share price [1]. Traders interested in OpenAI's public listing timing or size can use these threshold markets to express views on whether a listing occurs by the deadline and, if it does, where its first-day closing value lands. The distinction between a listing and a private valuation matters, because the most recent private round figure reported in the supplied background is not the measure used for resolution [1][2]. Prices shown for these markets are snapshots at a recorded observation time and are not executable quotes or verified probabilities. The seven included markets are all saved markets for this provider event, but that does not establish that the list covers every possible real-world outcome.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-12 at 20:51 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What value does the contract use to resolve the market capitalization thresholds?
The contract uses OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day [1].
What happens if OpenAI does not go public by the deadline?
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to "No IPO by December 31, 2026" [1].
Is the $852 billion funding round valuation the same as the market cap in this contract?
No. The March 2026 funding round was reported with a post-money valuation of US$852 billion [2]. The contract instead uses the market capitalization calculated from the closing share price on the first trading day [1].
Does the SpaceX IPO determine the outcome of the OpenAI contract?
No. The SpaceX IPO is a separate listing, reported at a valuation of US$1.77 trillion with a first-day market capitalization of about $2.1 trillion [3]. The OpenAI contract resolves only according to its own rules about OpenAI's listing and closing value [1].
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
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Reviewed equivalent pairs
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No currently reviewed equivalent pairs with both binary Yes prices are available.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.
