Two separate prediction market events ask how many Atlantic hurricanes will form in the 2026 season. Kalshi asks whether the National Hurricane Center records more than a set number of hurricanes of Category 1 or above between January 1 and December 1, 2026, and the event is split into threshold markets such as more than 4, more than 7 and more than 8 [1]. Polymarket asks how many storms categorized as hurricanes in the Atlantic occur between market creation and November 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET, and its markets are grouped into ranges such as 1 to 3, 4 to 6 and 7 or more [2]. The two events use different counting windows and different outcome structures, so their prices should be read separately. The saved prices are snapshots taken at 00:00 UTC on November 10, 2026. On Kalshi, the Yes price for more than 8 hurricanes was 0.02, for more than 7 it was 0.015, and for the other saved thresholds it was 0.005 or lower [1]. On Polymarket, the Yes price for 1 to 3 hurricanes was 0.973, for 4 to 6 it was 0.017, and for 7 or more it was 0.0005 [2]. These figures are observed prices at that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of any outcome. The saved Kalshi set covers all nine of its saved threshold markets, and the saved Polymarket set covers all three of its saved range markets, so no entries were left out of either saved set. Neither set shows a count of zero hurricanes, and the absence of that outcome in the saved data should not be read as a price for it. The resolution rules differ in useful ways. Kalshi says the market resolves Yes if the count exceeds the stated number, and it expires at the sooner of the event occurring or one day after December 1, 2026 [1]. The listed Kalshi end date in the saved data is December 2, 2026 at 15:00 UTC, which is a listed close time and not an announced resolution date. Polymarket defines a hurricane as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, which corresponds to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale [2]. Its listed end time is December 1, 2026 at 04:59 UTC, which matches 11:59 PM ET on November 30 [2]. Polymarket also says a market may count a storm based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a hurricane, even if a later advisory, retraction, best-track revision or reanalysis lowers the intensity [2]. Under both sets of rules, the official count depends on NHC advisories, not on news reports or secondary sites. The Wikipedia retrieval of the 2026 Hurricane Isaias article, retrieved November 9, 2026, describes a storm that formed from a low-pressure area in the Gulf of Mexico on October 6 and reached hurricane status on October 8 [3]. The article describes it as the ninth named storm, first hurricane and first major hurricane of the 2026 season, and says it tied the record for the latest date of the first Atlantic hurricane of a season, a record set in 1905 [3]. It also says the storm made landfall near Destin, Florida, before becoming post-tropical over Alabama on October 10 [3]. A Wikipedia article is a record of a described event and does not verify the current status of any market or count. The supplied material does not include a season-to-date hurricane total, so this article should not be read as the official running count for the contracts.

Historical Context

The Atlantic hurricane season is conventionally described as running from June 1 to November 30, a period that Wikipedia says was adopted by convention because it has historically covered most subtropical and tropical cyclogenesis in the Atlantic [4]. The Polymarket end time for the 2026 hurricane contract matches the end of that convention at 11:59 PM ET on November 30 [2]. For background, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is described as an extremely active and destructive season that became the third-costliest on record, behind 2017 and 2005. It featured 18 named storms, 11 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, and it was the first season since 2019 to include multiple Category 5 hurricanes [4]. This is historical context only and does not describe the 2026 season. The 2026 Isaias article provides a separate historical reference point. It says the storm reached hurricane status on October 8 and tied a record for the latest date on which the first Atlantic hurricane of a season formed, set in 1905 [3]. The article is a retrieved encyclopedia description of a past event, not a current update on the 2026 hurricane count.

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