Market snapshot: Oct 11, 2026, 9:47 PM UTC. Prices may have changed since this snapshot.

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Event GroupPOLYMARKETWorld

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

Name: El Salvador Presidential Election Winner
End: 2027-03-01T04:59:00.000Z

Total Volume

$2.31K

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Markets

Trade on Polymarket

El Salvador Presidential Election Winner

Vol

$2.31K

Events

Markets

Polymarket

Platform StatsQuick Platform Comparison

Polymarket

markets · $2.31K

Kalshi

markets · $0.00

Price Spread

0.0%avg

max 0.0%

Arbitrage

of 0 cross-platform

Volume DistributionTotal: $2.31K

100%

Polymarket leads

Price ChartMatched Markets Price Graph

5 markets tracked

Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?

No data available

Single-Platform Markets(5)

Market	Platform	Price
Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Poly	97%
Will Alirio García Flamenco win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Poly	2%
Will Mayteé Iraheta win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Poly	1%
Will Rafael Aguirre win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Poly	0%
Will Orlando del Cid win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?	Poly	0%

AI Analysis

Trader mode: Actionable analysis for identifying opportunities and edge

97%

Top Probability

$2.31K

Volume

Markets

Platforms

About This Event

Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there

AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.

Custom AI Analysis Prompt

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Open in:ChatGPT Claude Gemini Grok DeepSeek

**Role:** Expert Prediction Market Analyst & Trader
**Objective:** Analyze the provided betting market data to deliver actionable insights, identify mispricings, and perform scenario analysis.
**Current Date:** Sunday, October 11, 2026
**Context:** Prediction markets (Polymarket/Kalshi) are binary option markets where price (1-99) equals implied probability (1%-99%).

---

## 1. Event Snapshot
**Event:** El Salvador Presidential Election Winner
**Category:** World | **Status:** active
**Resolution Date:** Mar 1, 2027 (141 days left)
**Time Pressure:** Low

**Description:** Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitively by February 29, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there 

**Resolution Criteria (Sample):**
"Presidential elections are currently scheduled to be held in El Salvador on February 28, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election. Any interim or caretaker President will not qualify.

If the results are not known definitive"

## 2. Market liquidity & Volume
* **Total Volume:** $2.3K
* **Total Liquidity:** $83.6K
* **Activity Level:** Low Activity (Vol/Liq Ratio: 0.03)

## 3. Market Data (Prices & Odds)
### 1. Will Nayib Bukele win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $1.3K
  DATA: [Yes: 97.0% (0.0%)] | [No: 2.9% (0.0%)]

### 2. Will Mayteé Iraheta win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 1.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.0% (0.0%)]

### 3. Will Rafael Aguirre win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $161
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

### 4. Will Alirio García Flamenco win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $391
  DATA: [Yes: 1.6% (0.0%)] | [No: 98.5% (0.0%)]

### 5. Will Orlando del Cid win the 2027 Salvadoran presidential election?
- **Polymarket** (End: Mar 1, 2027): Vol $212
  DATA: [Yes: 0.1% (0.0%)] | [No: 99.9% (0.0%)]

---

## Analysis Instructions
Please provide a structured analysis using the following template:

### 1. Executive Summary
*   **Verdict:** [Most Likely Outcome]
*   **Confidence:** [0-100]%
*   **Timeframe:** [Immediate / Short-term / Long-term]
*   **Actionable Trade:** [Buy YES / Buy NO / Stay Away] (Include entry price target if applicable)
*   **Rationale:** 2-sentence summary of the core thesis.

### 2. Scenario Analysis
*   **Bull Case (Why YES goes up):** List specific catalysts or data points.
*   **Bear Case (Why YES goes down):** List specifics.
*   **Invalidation Point:** What happens to prove your thesis wrong?

### 3. Market Mechanics & Risks
*   **Liquidity/Volume Analysis:** Is the market efficient? Is it easy to exit?
*   **Cross-Platform Arbitrage:** (If applicable) Is the spread tradeable after fees?
*   **Time Decay:** How does time passing affect this position?

### 4. Signal Scores (0-100)
*   **Momentum:** [Score] (Price trend & velocity)
*   **Conviction:** [Score] (Volume backing the move)
*   **Information Edge:** [Score] (Likelihood of non-public info affecting price)
*   **Risk/Reward:** [Score] (Potential upside vs downside)

**Constraints:**
- Be direct and objective.
- Use bullet points for readability.
- If data is conflicting or insufficient, explicitly state "Low Confidence".

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Educational content is AI-generated and sourced from Wikipedia. It should not be considered financial advice.

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