Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
PM $9.8
1
1
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
PM $9.8
1
1
AI Analysis
Trader mode: Market mechanics, assumptions and risks
PM $9.8
Reported volume · provider units
1
Saved contracts
0
Same-question pairs
Source snapshot: Oct 22, 2026, 9:00 AM UTC
About This Event
This market will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD TWAP data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd-twap-60s-streams. Please note that this market is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets.
Snapshot observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z. This analysis describes that snapshot and is not a live news update.
What the contract measures
This is a single Polymarket contract titled "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET" [1]. According to the saved rules, it "will resolve to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin, generated by Chainlink, of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down"." [1]
The resolution source is the Chainlink BTC/USD TWAP data stream, and the rules state that the market "is about the price according to the TWAP Chainlink data stream for the asset pair BTC/USD, not according to any other sources or spot markets." [1] A reader comparing this contract with a Bitcoin price shown on another exchange or data service should expect the reference price to differ in method and source.
The saved listed end time is 2026-10-22T14:05:00.000Z [1]. This is the listed close time in the contract data. It is not evidence of when the contract was resolved, and the supplied evidence does not record a resolution outcome.
Reading the snapshot
The saved prices were observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T00:35:56.916Z [1]. These values describe that earlier snapshot. They are not live prices, and the saved status is "active" only as of the saved record.
The snapshot shows "Up" at 0.505 and "Down" at 0.495 [1]. Because these are two outcomes of one binary contract, the reported prices are close to even. This snapshot does not show why the prices were at those levels, how many traders held each view, or how much volume or liquidity sat behind them. Prices are snapshots, not executable quotes or verified probabilities.
The sample covers one market from one provider event. The coverage record lists one total market, one included market, and no partial sample [1]. The evidence therefore contains the full saved field for this event. It does not establish that the provider lists every possible outcome for a Bitcoin price question.
What remains uncertain
The supplied evidence does not include a resolution result, a current price, or any post-snapshot data. It also does not include a comparison contract on another platform, so no cross-platform comparison is possible from this evidence. A similar Bitcoin contract on another venue could use different wording, a different reference price, or a different close time, and a difference in quoted price would not by itself indicate an arbitrage opportunity.
Readers should check the saved rules and listed end time directly against any other contract before comparing them.
References
- Polymarket: Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET. Provider data observed 2026-10-22T00:00:05.980Z.
AI-generated analysis based on market data. Not financial advice.
Saved Oct 22, 2026 UTCOverview
This PredictPedia entry covers a short-window Bitcoin contract listed on Polymarket under the title "Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET" [1]. The contract is in the crypto category and concerns a five-minute window on October 22, 10:00 to 10:05 AM Eastern Time. Its listed end time is 2026-10-22T14:05:00Z, which is 10:05 AM Eastern on that date [1]. The contract resolves to "Up" if the time-weighted average price (TWAP) of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window. Otherwise it resolves to "Down" [1]. The outcome therefore depends on the average price across the window compared with the starting price, not on the price at a single moment. The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval [1]. The contract states that it is about the price in that Chainlink data stream and not about any other data source or spot market [1]. A trader who watches a different exchange's price would therefore be tracking a different measure from the one that settles this contract. The saved snapshot shows the Up outcome at 0.505 and the Down outcome at 0.495, observed at 2026-10-22T00:00:05Z and retrieved at 2026-10-22T00:35:56Z, with the market listed as active at that time [1]. These are provider prices from that moment. They are not executable quotes, and they are not verified probabilities of the outcome. The observation time is earlier than the window itself, so the snapshot describes the market before the window opens rather than the result of the window.
Why It Matters
The contract measures whether Bitcoin's average price over a five-minute window, as recorded in a specific Chainlink TWAP data stream, finishes at or above the price at the start of that window [1]. Because the rule uses a time-weighted average rather than a closing price, a brief spike or dip at one instant does not by itself decide the result. Because the rule names one data stream, the contract's outcome is tied to that stream's data and not to the general market price of Bitcoin. Anyone reading the listed prices should keep in mind that they are a single observed snapshot from a platform that lists the contract, not a forecast endorsed by any independent source.
Snapshot context
The latest published provider snapshot for this topic was observed on 2026-10-22 at 00:00 UTC. It contains listings from Polymarket. Market descriptions and listed closing times define the contracts; they do not establish that the real-world outcome has occurred. This article does not include a separately verified news update. [1]
Frequently Asked Questions
What counts as Up?
The contract resolves to Up if the time-weighted average price of Bitcoin over the stated window is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that window [1].
What data source decides the result?
The resolution source is Chainlink's BTC/USD TWAP data stream with a 60-second interval, and the contract states it does not use other sources or spot markets [1].
When does the window end?
The listed end time is 2026-10-22T14:05:00Z, which corresponds to 10:05 AM Eastern on October 22 [1]. This is the listed date in the contract rules and does not by itself confirm when any result is published.
Do the listed prices show the likely outcome?
The retrieved prices were 0.505 for Up and 0.495 for Down at the observation time [1]. These are snapshot prices, not executable quotes or verified probabilities, so they do not establish which outcome is more likely.
AI-written background. References identify the evidence used; Wikipedia links under Learn More are additional reading. Prices and provider rules are dated snapshots. This is not financial advice.
Related prediction markets
Prices are catalog snapshots and may have changed. Check each market's rules and observation time.
What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?
PM $114.48M · K 25.15M contractsWill Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?
Kalshi: Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET?
Related contracts
Related or unreviewed contracts may settle differently. Their gap is not an equivalent-contract comparison.
Saved prices; check contract rules.
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET
PM $9.8Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET
PM $9.8
Solana Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
PM $0
Dogecoin Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
PM $0
ZCash Up or Down - October 22, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET
PM $0Market Insights
Price gaps of 2 pp+
0
Same-question pairs
0
No outcomes on this page have been reviewed as the same question on both platforms yet.
Price differences do not establish arbitrage. Check each pair's review, current order prices, fees and settlement rules.