Current Market Outlook

Prediction markets assign a 37% probability to Seattle's high temperature falling between 46-47°F on February 21. This price indicates the market views this specific range as the most likely single outcome among nine discrete options, which span from below 40°F to above 52°F. However, a 37% chance also means traders see a 63% probability the temperature lands outside this two-degree band. The market is thinly traded with only $33,000 in total volume, suggesting low confidence and high potential for price volatility. With resolution based on data from Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, the outcome is now certain and awaiting final verification.

Key Factors Driving the Odds

The pricing reflects typical late-February weather patterns for the Pacific Northwest. Seattle's average high temperature in late February historically sits near 50°F, making the 46-47°F forecast a plausible, slightly cooler-than-average scenario. Traders likely weighed recent forecast models against climatology. The concentration of probability in a narrow band, rather than being spread evenly, shows market participants had a specific forecast in mind. The low volume, however, signals this consensus was weak and based on limited capital commitment. In weather markets, thin liquidity often amplifies the influence of a single updated forecast from sources like the National Weather Service.

What Could Change These Odds

For a resolved weather market, the odds are fixed. The 37% probability was the final market assessment before trading stopped and real-world data collection began. The key variable now is the verification process itself. The market resolves based on the highest recorded temperature at Sea-Tac Airport, per Wunderground data. Any discrepancy in sensor data, reporting delays, or interpretation of the "highest temperature recorded for all times on this day" could theoretically prompt a resolution challenge, though this is rare for straightforward meteorological measurements. The outcome is now a matter of public record, awaiting official market settlement.

Analysis for a Resolved Event

This market functioned as a short-term weather derivative. The 37% price on the 46-47°F range likely represented the latest reliable forecast available to traders before the event. Compared to a public weather forecast stating a "high of 47°F," the prediction market price quantified the uncertainty around that point estimate. The low trading volume is typical for highly specific, short-duration weather contracts, as they attract limited arbitrage and are often dominated by speculative retail traders rather than institutional weather risk managers. The result will demonstrate whether crowd-sourced probability estimates can effectively calibrate uncertainty around a precise meteorological outcome.